Haru Day 3 Preview

kisenosato Haru 2

This Hits Keep Rolling

Apologies on the late posting this week. Your humble author is humbling nursing a terrible cold, and executing a mandatory cross-country drive. This should improve on Saturday, possibly with the introduction of the Tachiai daily morning update podcast. 5 minutes of all the action of the day from Japan. Provided my voice comes back….

We are only two days into the basho, so it’s far too early to talk about who is hot and who is not. But there are some interesting trends already.

Daishomaru, Chiyoshoma, Tochiozan and Takarafuji are all 2-0. That’s right, there are only 5 Maegashira who are still undefeated. Clearly, this basho things are a bit more balanced, meaning that the banzuke was a better fit for the rikishi available. Of course once we hit day 6 on Friday, we should be able to know who has a chance to lead the pack.

Five of the eleven San’yaku are still undefeated. Which further underscores our worry that the upper ranks have quite a bit of “walking wounded”. The only two San’yaku who thus far look healthy and fit are Kisenosato and Takayasu.

Matches We Like

Daishomaru vs Kyokushuho – These two have only met twice before, with one win each. I expect a lot of pushing and shoving from these two, with a throw to finish.

Ura vs Tochiozan – Ura has been working hard to apply his technique to Makuuchi, which is turning out to be a challenge. Tochiozan is a storied veteran who has seen better days, but can still reach for greatness. This is the first time these two have matched, and I am eager to see what happens.

Chiyoshoma vs Kotoyuki – Chiyoshoma has a small hot streak going at 2-0, but he faces Kotoyuki, who is a fierce pusher / thruster. Kotoyuki is still young, and we hope that he develops a better mawashi technique. This transition form pure pusher-thruster to hybrid seems to have been the key element that really ignited Mitkaeumi, and I belive that Kotoyuki has great potential if he can expand his sumo.

Endo vs Takarafuji – Takarafuji is closer to the end of his career than the beginning. Endo can learn much from Takarafuji’s sumu. Takarafuji leads their career matches 4-2. I epxect that Takarafuji will prevail.

Kotoshogiku vs Takayasu – It’s time to see what happens when Kotoshogiku matches with a man looking to beat everyone between him and his Ozeki title. Kotoshogiku has been holding up well the first two days, and is looking much better than I thought he would. But Takayasu is hungry. He is also one of the few rikishi who has the strength, stance and ring awareness to survive a “hug-n-chug” attack from the master. This may be the big match of the day.

Goeido vs Shodai – Goeido is always hit-or-miss, except for Goeido 2.0. Shodai is looking nicely upgraded since Hatsu. This will be a great test to see if Goeido is going to be able to put power-to-ground through that damaged ankle. Slight edge to Goeido.

Ikioi vs Kakuryu – Readers, try to carefully examine what Kakuryu does the moment of the tachiai. His normal approach will be to absorb Ikioi’s initial thrusts and fall back and circle. Ikioi will chase him, and Kakuryu will wait for the correct moment when Ikioi is off balance, and he will close the deal. This is the essence of Kakuryu, look to see if he does it today.

Takanoiwa vs Kisenosato – Takanoiwa can surprise anyone on any given day. That being said, I think that we are going to see Kisenosato hit that Mae pose of sumo doom, and Takanoiwa will be done.

Handicapping The Haru Banzuke – Part 3

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The Fish Tank & Fresh Faces

In the last of our series prognosticating the banzuke for Haru, we take a look at the lower half Makuuchi, including the rikishi who are likely to be demoted down to Juryo and promoted out of Juryo to the upper division.

The action during Hatsu in January saw some incredible winning records among rikishi ranked below Maegashira 4, several of whom racked up double digit records. This resulted in some dramatic shifts up and down the banzuke, with some names familiar to Tachiai readers poised for some of their lowest ranking in many tournaments.

Gone from the upper division are Chiyootori, who was only at Maegashira 14, but had a terrible rank velocity score of -3.3, which is identical to his stablemate Chiyotairyu. One of them is going back to Juryo most likely, and a flip of a coin gave me Chiyootori. The overwhelming swarm of Kokonoe beya wrestlers in January caused fits for scheduling, and frankly it will be good to thin the ranks a bit.

Likewise we can wave goodbye to Gagamaru, the massive Georgan turned in yet another terrible performance in January, with a rank velocity score of -5.5 from his 5-10 result. Sadly we are also losing Osunaarashi, who gave it everything he had but was just too injured to compete in January. His last demotion was brutal, and I have no idea how far down the banzuke he is going to drop.

Joining Makuuchi from Juryo are 3 favorites who have worked hard to win their upper-division slots: Juryo yusho winner Daieisho, Kyokushuho, and Tachiai favorite Ura.

Running everyone’s scores through the magic computations gives us the following list:

East Rank West
Chiyoshoma Maegashira 8 Kaisei
Okinoumi Maegashira 9 Kotoyuki
Tochiozan Maegashira 10 Kagayaki
Ishiura Maegashira 11 Myogiryu
Takakeisho Maegashira 12 Daishomaru
Sadanoumi Maegashira 13 Daieisho
Ura Maegashira 14 Nishikigi
Kyokushuho Maegashira 15 Chiyoo
Chiyotairyu Maegashira 16

First up at Maegashira 8, Chiyoshoma dropping 2 ranks from Maegashira 6. Chiyoshoma had a fairly decent performance at Hatsu, including wins over Maegashira 4 Endo and Maegashira 5 Takekaze. He is joined on the west by Kaisei, who has been struggling for several tournaments, but managed to get his kachi-koshi with a win over Gagamaru on the final day.

Leading up Maegashira 9 is the injured and struggling Okinoumi, who could only find 4 wins in January. He drops 6 ranks in a fairly brutal demotion that is more a testament to his injuries than his sumo skill. Joining him is Kotoyuki, another veteran who had a terrible tournament in January. He falls 3 ranks to take up the west position.

Tochiozan falls 6 ranks as well to take the Maegashira 10e slot. He managed only 3 wins in January and is really having trouble recapturing his former power and strength. Joining him is Kagayaki, who rises 1 rank on the back of his 8-7 kachi-koshi from January.

After an impressive debut performance in Kyushu, Ishiura struggled during Hatsu, managing only 6 wins. He drops two ranks to take up the Maegashira 11e slot. Myogiryu had a horrific Hatsu, with a 4-11 result. He drops 4 ranks to occupy the Maegashira 11w slot at Osaka.

Maegashira 12 seems to be a strange rank this tournament. Both occupants, Takakeisho in the east and Daishomaru in the west, were at this same rank for January, and ended up with 7-8 records. But because of the downward velocity of some other rikishi, they ended up here. Be aware that they may end up lower in the final, NSK banzuke.

Sadanoumi improves to Maegashira 13e for Haru after being Maegashira 15 in January, his 8-7 kachi-koshi record was enough to bring him forward 2 ranks. He is joined by the Juryo yusho winner, Daieisho, who is making his return to Makuuchi after 3 tournaments in Jury.

At Meagashira 14e, making his Makuuchi debut – none other than Ura. Only time will tell if he can survive in the top division, but many fans (including myself) are hopeful we can finally get a steady digest of Ura’s sumo acrobatics in our video feed. At 14 west, we find the hapless Nishikigi. Nishikigi’s record was worthy of demotion by the “rank velocity” formula, but it was necessary to round out Maegashira ranks, so being slightly less damaged than some of the others, I have him staying.

Also up from Juryo, Kyokushuho re-joins the top division, after spending Hatsu in Juryo. Also at Maegashira 15 is Chiyoo, who was chosen by coin toss from the 3 demotable Kokonoe wrestlers.

if there is a need for a single Maegashira 16 to even out Makuuchi, Tachiai predicts Chiyotairyu survive demotion back to Juryo in order to balance the banzuke. This will come down to how many of the injured rikishi actually state they will be able to compete, and may be decided at the last minute.

That’s Bruce’s guess for Haru 2017. As always, please feel free to post your ideas too!

May Tournament, Day 9: Harumafuji & Terunofuji lose!

Hakuho is now the lone sanyaku wrestler with one loss. He had a powerful win over Myogiryu. Kaisei and fellow M11 Kyokushuho stand with Hakuho at 8-1. As a result, all three have kachi-koshi so the pressure is off the two maegashira. They should basically just do their best to avoid injury from here out and they’ll be in the top half of the rank-and-file in July.