Ozeki and favorite kaiju Terunofuji has withdrawn from the Nagoya sumo tournament. For reasons I cannot fathom, he decided to compete in Nagoya just a short time after undergoing knee surgery to repair cumulative damage. Given his results and his visible pain at Nagoya, there was really no point in his continuing to compete.
Tachiai is still waiting for word on Kisenosato, who is also expected to withdraw today.
Video from this Nagoya basho always features one thing in every shot – the crowd desperately fanning themselves. I had heard that this event was a hot, sweaty and sticky affair. On top of that, Japan has turned it’s heat and formidable humidity to 11. The greatest and most troubling manifestation of Japan’s tropical tendencies are the catastrophic rain in western Japan, including parts of Kyushu and extreme western Honshu.
While the discomfort for the fans in the Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium is quite real, the heat endured by the athletes is even more extreme. Within the dohyo awning suspended from the ceiling, There is a battery of high intensity flood lamps, cameras and microphones. These lamps are meant to light the action, and easily raise the temperature on the dohyo by 10°. So if you wonder why the rikishi are drenched in sweat when you see them either exit the arena, or in the interview room after a bout, this plays a significant part.
As anticipated, the placement of so many strong, healthy and new rikishi this high in the banzuke is creating some unpredictable results in the first third of Nagoya. Readers of this site know that it is my theory that any basho follows a fairly predictable evolution, that can be thought of as 5 day “thirds”. The first third is the warm up, the second is the heart of the competition, where you see who is hot and who is not, and the final third determines the yusho. The roster of who is in Makuuchi has been surprisingly stable for at least a year, and so the pace and contests within each day’s torikumi can feel almost familiar.
With this much new talent in the top Maegashira, it’s a surprise each day. First time match up coupled with raw talent, uninjured rikishi scrapping to make their mark on the sport they will likely dominate for the next decade or so. Let the chaos cauldron continue to boil! Nagoya is just getting started!
Nishikigi vs Chiyomaru – Both have started the basho with two wins, and both are Maegashira 15. Looks like it’s time to sort these two on the clay.
Arawashi vs Takarafuji – Takarafuji as never lost to Arawashi, but Arawashi has won his first two bouts of the basho. I would expect that Arawashi will need to do something to escape Takarafuji superior reach and complete lack of neck.
Aoiyama vs Ishiura – Classic sumo big man / little man match. We have yet to see any real sumo from Ishiura this tournament, and it would warm the hearts of many fans to see these two provide a good battle. This is, in fact, their first match.
Ichinojo vs Onosho – Another big man / little man match, Onosho has really been high energy and dangerous since May. As always Ichinojo is hit or miss. Another of the great first ever meetings between these two.
Ura vs Kagayaki – Kagayaki has been struggling to get his sumo running in Nagoya. Now he is up against Ura, who has dialed back the acrobatics and is winning with solid sumo fundamentals. Perhaps today Ura will unleash some of his non newtonian physics for the fans.
Tamawashi vs Yoshikaze – Both rikishi are coming into the match with two win starts, and this one could be one of the better matches of the day. Yoshikaze has been surprisingly deliberate in his two prior wins. Tamawashi has been unleashing explosive sumo from the start, and making it work. Their career match ups are essentially even, so this could be a real battle.
Mitakeumi vs Goeido – Mitakeumi has only beaten Goeido once before, but Mitakeumi could care less. Mitakeumi is starting to remind me of a Honey Badger now. Goeido is getting into a really troublesome mode right now, I had jokingly nominated him for kadoban, but he seems to be on a fast track this time.
Terunofuji vs Ikioi – One could imagine a healthy Terunofuji would stop by the Ryogoku McDonalds for some dipping sauce to enjoy with what was left of Ikioi. But it’s clear that the big Ozeki is injured. Ikioi could really use the win, so it will be somewhat unpleasant to see what happens here. Surprisingly, Ikioi leads their career bout record 7-2.
Takayasu vs Kotoshogiku – Another cringe inducing match. As we stated before we hate watching Kotoshogiku suffer, but he insists on turning up to compete. But for Takayasu, he needs to settle down and produce Ozeki class result. Hopefully Ojisan Kotoshogiku will provide him with a good match.
Takakeisho vs Harumafuji – We can assume after the first two days that Harumafuji has some medical / mechanical issues in Nagoya. The question is does he soldier on? Takakeisho is a big mystery here, this is their first ever match, and he is both nervous and fired up.
Hakuho vs Shodai – The boss is looking for win #1039 on his march to the record. Shodai will likely provide some contest for a few seconds, but I expect Hakuho to dispatch him. Short of injury, Hakuho is making the case that he will be the man to beat.
Hokutofuji vs Kakuryu – Another potential for a great match. These two are meeting for the first time, and we will have two rikishi who have mass, strength and a great defensive approach to sumo. Sure Hokutofuji can implement a masterful attack, but I am expecting to recognize that a match with Big K is going to be a game of cat and mouse.
Kisenosato vs Tochinoshin – Someone is going to really hurt Kisenosato, I fear. And with the overwhelming strength of Tochinoshin, I fear this could be the match that unleashes agony for the Yokozuna and the Japanese sumo loving public. If The Great Pumpkin can make it through this match and even win, it would do a lot to shut people like me up, who think his current left arm is some cutting edge robotic attachment from the labs at Tohoku University.
Much has been said here on Tachiai as well as other sumo media about some of the excitement around this Nagoya basho. There is a lot of fresh blood in the top half of Maegashira, Hakuho looks to be back to fighting form, and there is a new Ozeki in town. On day one of any basho, the possibilities are wide open, but I feel more so for this tournament. It’s at times like this that I wish there were a way to get the full NHK English program (2 hours) without going through strange gyrations and whole house rewiring. But most likely we will be limited to what matches NHK World can squeeze into the 20 minute highlight show.
Nishikigi vs Kotoyuki – Kotoyuki ended Natsu on a really sour note. He was clearly injured and was just barely getting up on the dohyo daily. Nishikigi is back after one tournament in Juryo, and it’s time to see if he has improved. Nishikigi holds a 2-1 career edge.
Sadanoumi vs Sokokurai – This one should be all Sokokurai, but their last meet up (also on day 1 of the May basho) saw Sadanoumi deliver a convincing oshidashi.
Chiyonokuni vs Shohozan – Chiyonokuni was drop-kicked down the banzuke after a miserable turn as Maegashira 1. Now bottom feeding at Maegashira 11, he goes up against “Big Guns” Shohozan, who holds a 5-1 career advantage.
Tokushoryu vs Ishiura – Only one prior match between them, and it went to Ishiura. Tokushoryu has bulk, height and reach on Ishiura, so if Ishiura wants to take their second career meeting, he is going to do it via speed and technique.
Ichinojo vs Tochiozan – Tochiozan had a great basho in Osaka, and then fizzled at Natsu. Ichinojo is hit or miss, so it’s time to see if the big Mongolian is healthy and ready to compete. Tochiozan holds a 6-3 career advantage.
Chiyoshoma vs Kagayaki – Kagayaki is probably a bit uncomfortable with his significant lift up the banzuke, and he starts Nagoya facing off against veteran Chiyoshoma. Chiyoshoma had a miserable Natsu, but was not demoted nearly as much as might be expected based on his 5-10 record. If Kagayaki is going to be able to put up much of a contest at his new rank, this may be a good early indicator.
Ura vs Endo – One of the big matches of the day. Two crowd favorites face off for the very first time. I expect Endo to go for a straight ahead bout, and Ura is going to try something creative. May not last long.
Tamawashi vs Ikioi – Tamawashi is coming in with a lot of buzz about him being ready to take his sumo to the next level. While we all hope that Rikishi can continue to excel, he gets to try it out on Ikioi first. Tamawashi leads 8-4 over their careers, but that’s not going to stop Ikioi from trying to blast him into space from the tachiai.
Takayasu vs Hokutofuji – Another highlight match. This is the first meeting between these two, and it could be quite exciting. Both have similar approaches to their sumo. So I am looking for Hokutofuji to prevent Takayasu from getting his preferred grip, and try to coax him into pulling for a hatakikomi or similar move. This is always Takayasu’s weakness, and I pray he just fights moving forward.
Tochinoshin vs Goeido – From the scratch and dent bin, we get two rikishi who are capable of great sumo, but frequently under-achieve. I will be looking for Goeido to go for a massive offense straight from the tachiai.
Terunofuji vs Takakeisho – Takakeisho’s baptism by fire. Welcome to upper Makuuchi kid! Here, have a match with the kaiju! It will be entertaining to see what Takakeisho does in reaction to Terunofuji. Maybe a henka?
Shodai vs Kakuryu – Big K holds a 4-0 advantage in the series, so I am going to look for a strong but high tachiai from Shodai, with Kakuryu using his energy to move him toward the tawara.
Kisenosato vs Mitakeumi – There are a lot of great matches today, and this could be worthy of note. We will find out if Kisenosato is still a one armed man, and we will see if Mitakeumi was sandbagging during the last few days of training.
Yoshikaze vs Harumafuji – There is no love lost here. Last year in Nagoya their bout became a street brawl that left blood on the dohyo. Career wise, Harumafuji leads only by 9-8, and Yoshikaze tends to beat kinboshi out of Harumafuji.
Hakuho vs Kotoshogiku – We get to see Hakuho launch into his march towards the all time win goal with his bout against an ailing and aging Kotoshogiku. I am not sure about you, but watching Kotoshogiku fight now is kind of sad to me.
The start of the Nagoya basho is just over 8 hours from this post, and it’s time to take a look at the top rikishi and discuss what kind of condition they are in for the tournament. The Nagoya basho is kind of a special animal. In July, Japan is hot and humid, and rather uncomfortable in general. The Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium has some air conditioning, but in general the interior of the venue is overly warm and moist for the duration of the basho. This makes the surface of the dohyo somewhat slick, and in the past there have been more than a handful of falls in injuries from rikishi losing traction. (Such as Hakuho’s broken foot last year)
Given the thermal challenges, the injuries and the general chaos of a basho away from the home stable, what can we expect?
Rikishi: Hakuho
Genki: ✭✭✭✭✭
Notes: The boss is primed and ready for Nagoya. He has a good chance of securing his name against the all time win record, and is an early favorite to be a yusho contender during week 2. He seems to be past his injuries from last year, and is frankly having fun again.
Forecast: Yusho contender
Rikishi: Harumafuji
Genki: ✭✭✭✭
Notes: Harumafuji took the yusho last year, and he could well do so again. His lingering lower body issues are compounded by an elbow injury that seems to be permanent now. If he can get power to ground, he is the man to stop Hakuho.
Forecast: Yusho contender
Rikishi: Kisenosato
Genki: ✭✭
Notes: Westerners may not understand why Kisenosato will show up and compete. Not only did he never get surgical attention to his ruptured pectoral, there are indications he re-injured it recently in a test match with Yoshikaze. To Kisenosato, he must soldier on and endure his difficulties and compete because he is Yokozuna. With knowledgable sources keeping quiet on his health, it’s a sure sign that he is in less than adequate condition to compete.
Forecast: Kyujo week 2
Rikishi: Kakuryu
Genki: ✭✭✭?
Notes: Kakuryu brings an unusual strategy to the dohyo, I call him the “Reactive Yokozuna”. He competes by letting his opponent over-commit to a battle plan and then exploiting every mistake. When he is healthy it is amazing to watch, as his opponents do most of the work for him. But Kakuryu suffers from nagging back and knee problems, and they have robbed us fans of his fantastic sumo for too many tournaments. Will he be able to go all 15 days this time? I think not.
Forecast: Kyujo week 2
Rikishi: Terunofuji
Genki: ✭✭✭
Notes: The Kaiju is an epic rikishi, who is limited by problems with his undercarriage. During pre-basho training, he was clearly having knee problems once more, and it throws huge doubt on his ability to be a serious contender. To be clear, if Terunofuji is healthy, he is a yusho candidate. But we worry he will limp his way through Nagoya.
Forecast: Double digit wins
Rikishi: Goeido
Genki: ✭✭✭✭
Notes: Indications coming out of Natsu were that Goeido’s surgical ankle rebuild may have been successful. So his healthy is good. Where Goeido falls apart is in his mind. He seems to have two modes: Goeido 1.0 who is satisfied to looks sloppy and out of control, this version is kadoban ready. Goeido 2.0 is this unstoppable sumo machine (from Aki 2016) that commits 100% to his attack and overwhelms his opponents. We hope 2.0 can mount the dohyo at Nagoya.
Forecast: Kadoban
Rikishi: Takayasu
Genki: ✭✭✭✭✭
Notes: Big, strong, healthy and during the lead up to Nagoya, giving Kisenosato a run for his money in daily training. With him now in the Ozeki rotation, his tough bouts will be in week 2, and that may be a problem for the shin-ozeki. He also tends to drop bouts after he suffers a set back, as a defeat throws him off his confidence. Our hope for Takayasu is to get his kachi-koshi, and finish Nagoya in one piece.
Forecast: Kachi-koshi
Rikishi: Tamawashi
Genki: ✭✭✭✭
Notes: He has been comfortable at Sekiwake for several tournaments now. Is it time for him to rally and push for double digit wins? He has to power, some times he has the speed. He has been training hard in the run up to Nagoya, and I think he is going to try some new stuff this basho.
Forecast: Double digit wins
Rikishi: Mitakeumi
Genki: ✭✭✭✭✭
Notes: Mitakeumi has put forth a huge effort, bashing down the door to Sekiwaki and finally claiming a spot to begin to consider the evolution to Ozeki. He is happy, healthy, powerful and clever. This could in fact be a break-out basho for Mitakeumi, but only if he can improve his record against the Yokozuna and Ozeki corps.
Forecast: Double digit wins
Rikishi: Yoshikaze
Genki: ✭✭✭✭
Notes: The Berserker is a rikishi that no one in San’yaku can expect to defeat. On any given day, he can unleash rapid fire attacks that leave his opponent defensive and ripe for defeat. To be certain his body has taken a pounding over the last few years, but he shows up and competes. He is looking healthy, strong and ready for battle.
Forecast: Kachi-koshi
Rikishi: Kotoshogiku
Genki: ✭✭
Notes: Ojisan Kotoshogiku’s heart is still willing, but it’s clear his body can no longer support his sumo. it’s really sad to watch him decay in place, but it’s more or less his choice to do so. From ichimon practice sessions leading up to Nagoya, it’s clear that he is feeling the damage to his knees and hips.
Forecast: Maki-koshi
Rikishi: Shodai
Genki: ✭✭✭✭
Notes: Young, powerful, strong and out of the firestorm of San’yaku – Shodai is poised to have a fairly good basho. Right now Maegashira 1 is a great rank for him, as he needs to refine his sumo. Especially his tachiai.
Forecast: Kachi-koshi
Rikishi: Takakeisho
Genki: ✭✭✭✭✭
Notes: As we covered at length earlier, this young rikishi is probably promoted into a brutal level for Nagoya. But it’s clear the NSK thinks it’s possible he may one day be a big deal, and it’s time for him to get exposure to the joi, and all of the challenges of facing the top men of sumo bring. He is excited, healthy and ready to go. My hope is that he does not incur any injuries.
Forecast: Maki-koshi with some great bouts, possibly a kinboshi.
Rikishi: Tochinoshin
Genki: ✭✭✭
Notes: The Georgian is hugely strong and powerful, but the mummy like wrap on his leg tells the story of why his fans worry each time he mounts the dohyo. Like many other rikishi mentioned in this report, leg injuries hamper his otherwise bright prospects. His final two matches in May (both henkas) indicate his leg troubles are a constant danger.
Forecast: Kachi-koshi
Rikishi: Hokutofuji
Genki: ✭✭✭✭✭
Notes: Hokutofuji is an excellent rank to make a play for a Komusubi promotion for Aki. If such a promotion would benefit him yet is another matter. Like many rikishi who have risen rapidly through the ranks, he will find himself challenged to adapt to the upper levels of sumo. He certainly has the strength and stamina to be a big deal, and he is worth following.
Forecast: Kachi-koshi, possibly a kinboshi vs Kisenosato.
Rikishi: Ikioi
Genki: ✭✭✭✭✭
Notes: Ikioi is looking better pre-basho than he has for almost a year. This could in fact be a big tournament for him, and he is ranked low enough that he is not under constant San’yaku bombardment. With the bonus of having plenty of new rikishi to encounter, he has a real chance at a strong kachi-koshi this time.
Forecast: Strong kachi-koshi
Rikishi: Endo
Genki: ✭✭✭
Notes: There has been little news on Endo going into Nagoya. We will assume that he will continue to struggle to be consistent.
Forecast: Kachi-koshi
Rikishi: Ura
Genki: ✭✭✭✭
Notes: Ura is probably headed for a maki-koshi in glorious style in Nagoya. Fast and unpredictable, his usual go-to move, to bend at the waist and be super-low, is a fast ticket to hatakikomi at this rank. So he will have to improvise. Frankly, we can’t wait.
Forecast: Maki-koshi with some great bouts, possibly a kinboshi.
Rikishi: Kagayaki
Genki: ✭✭✭✭
Notes: Kagayaki quietly goes about his sumo. He’s more of a technician that someone like Ura, but he has real potential. He has been training hard to recuse himself well for his highest ever ranking, and we expect him to have some good matches this basho.
Forecast: Kachi-koshi