Makushita Sweet 16

After 6 days and 3 rounds of bouts, let’s take a look at the action in Makushita, where exciting newcomers mix it up with veterans for a shot at the salaried ranks.

As a reminder, the Makushita yusho race is essentially a seven-round single-elimination tournament in which the 120 or so rikishi are reduced by half over two-day rounds until one man with a 7-0 record takes the title (occasionally, same-heya rikishi and other wrinkles throw a wrench into the works, and we end up with a playoff and a 6-1 champion). A 7-0 record from Ms1-Ms15 is a near-guarantee of promotion to Juryo, which otherwise usually requires a winning record from Ms1-Ms5. Three rounds have been completed so far, and we are left with 15 undefeated wrestlers. The next round, unfolding over Days 7 and 8, should reduce the number to 8.

The obvious headliner among the undefeated rikishi is former Ozeki Asanoyama (Ms4e). He fought a bonus bout today as the Juryo visitor and easily defeated Tokushoryu to move to 4-0 and into the final eight. Asanoyama should next face the winner of tomorrow’s bout between Ms1w Shononnoumi, who is seeking to clinch a Juryo debut, and former sekitori Ms11e Chiyonoumi. Other notable names in the 3-0 bracket include Ms13e Kawazoe from Miyagino beya, who entered ozumo at Ms15TD in September, teenagers Otsuji and Setonoumi, ex-Kisenosato’s protege Kayo, and comeback kid Oshoumi, the September Sandanme champion.

After only 3 rounds of bouts, all 10 active wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still technically in contention for a Juryo spot, but it’s already a long shot for Ms2e Tsukahara (0-3) and an even longer one for Ms4w Asanowaka (0-3), who still seems to be suffering from long-term COVID aftereffects that kept him out of Aki. The winner of tomorrow’s bout between Ms1e Shiden and Ms2w Fujiseiun in the 2-1 bracket will find himself in excellent shape going into round 5.

I’ll try to keep these reports coming every two days or so, as additional rounds of bouts are completed.

Makushita Surprise

Well, the Asanoyama vs. Asonoyama dream playoff for the Makushita yusho isn’t going to happen. And the one who dropped the ball isn’t Ms56 Asonoyama, who extended his record to 6-0. Instead, former Ozeki Asanoyama (Ms15e) was drawn into a high-mobility oshi bout by Ms28 Yuma, got overly eager to finish his opponent, and lost to a thrust-over at the rope. There went his chance of immediate promotion to Juryo, and he’ll have to try again in November. Yuma should face Ms36 Daiseiryu (6-0) next, with the winner either taking the title outright or going into a playoff with Asonoyama.

So any promotions will now come from the Ms1-Ms5 Makushita joi. Ms1w Roga (4-2) is kachi-koshi and should be a lock for a long-awaited Juryo debut. Five rikishi at the Ms3w-Ms5w ranks have 3-3 or 4-2 records and need to win their final bouts and get favorable banzuke luck to make it to the salaried ranks.

Makushita Final … Five?

After 9 days and 5 rounds of bouts, the Makushita yusho race is down to five 5-0 rikishi. The next round, held on Day 11, will reduce the number to 2 or 3. Having more than four semifinalists is extremely unusual, and is the result of some puzzling matchmaking by the torikumi team.

Former Ozeki Asanoyama (Ms15e) remains the big favorite. A lot is at stake for him, as a wrestler in the Ms6-Ms15 ranks who goes 7-0 receives a near-automatic promotion to Juryo, while a 6-1 record merely moves him up into the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. Asanoyama faces Ms28 Yuma next. The other semifinal features Ms36 Daiseiryu vs Ms54 Shosei.

The extra guest at this party is Shosei’s stablemate Ms56 Asonoyama, who should face Sandanme leader Wakanosho. Depending on the outcome of this bout, we will get either 2 or 3 rikishi at 6-0. If Asonoyama wins, he is likely to get yet another Sandanme opponent for his final match in regulation (or perhaps a strong 5-1 Makushita opponent), and could then end up in a playoff against Asanoyama for the yusho.

After 9 days, eight wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still technically in contention. Ms1w Roga (3-2) is likely a win away from a long-awaited Juryo debut. Despite losing to Asanoyama, Ms5w Shonnanoumi (4-1) is still nursing promotion hopes, but likely needs to win out. I’ll keep following the fight for salaried slots as it unfolds.

Makushita Elite 8

After 8 days and 4 rounds of bouts, the Makushita yusho race is down to eight 4-0 rikishi. The next round, held on Day 9, will reduce the number to between 3 and 5 (we’ll get to why in a moment).

The obvious headliner among the undefeated rikishi is former Ozeki Asanoyama (Ms15e). A lot is at stake for him, as a wrestler in the Ms6-Ms15 ranks who goes 7-0 receives a near-automatic promotion to Juryo, while a 6-1 record merely moves him up into the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. Tomorrow, Asanoyama faces M5w Shonannoumi, who defeated Ms7w Tokihayate on Day 8 in a highly spirited bout featuring multiple imporbable escapes.

The rest of the bracket looks as follows:

  • Ms25 Ryuo vs. Ms28 Yuma
  • Ms36 Daiseiryu vs. Ms43 Narutaki
  • Ms54 Shosei vs. Sd13 Kototebakari
  • Ms56 Asonoyama vs. Sd17 Denuma

Now, they couldn’t simply pair up Shosei and Asonoyama because they’re in the same heya, but I am scratching my head as to why they weren’t matched up against Daiseryu and Narutaki instead of getting Sandanme opponents. Should both win, we’d end up with five 5-0 rikishi instead of the requisite four, and I am not sure what would happen then. As far as I can tell, this has literally never happened before. Losses by both would leave us with three undefeated Makushita rikishi, in which case I guess the winner of Daiseryu vs. Narutaki would fight Kototebakari? For the moment, the amusing possibility of Asanoyama vs. Asonoyama in the title decider is still alive!

After 4 rounds of bouts, all 9 active wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still technically in contention (the 10th, Ms1e Kaisei, retired before the basho). It’s too early to speculate on the ultimate outcome, but after the aforementioned 4-0 Shonnanoumi, the best records belong to the relatively low-ranked Ms4e Tsushimanada and Ms5e Fujiseiun, both 3-1. Higher up, Ms1w Roga, Ms2e Tomokaze, and Ms3e Yoshii are all 2-2, along with Ms4w Tsukahara. Tomorrow’s bouts among this quartet will start to clarify the promotion picture.

I’ll try to keep these reports coming every couple of days, as additional rounds of bouts are completed.