With Asanoyama out, there is an epic sumo storm brewing for January. You will have two Yokozuna who will be forced to compete, and to win somewhere between 8 and 10 matches. You will have a kadoban Ozeki who will need to get 8 as well. It will be a veritable thunder-dome in the Kokugikan for the Hatsu basho, and I am guessing only one or two may survive, at best. Honestly, it may come down to who is in the joi-jin, and mathematically, the spoiler in all of this may come down to none other than Terunofuji.

Have you noticed the difference in this version of Terunofuji and the prior? The original one was a hulking brute who just overpowered everyone and everything. His power, size, and sheer aggression carried him to win match after match. He got hurt, and spent a long, ugly time getting his body back to working order, then grinding through his injuries to re-enter sumo. The man has been humbled, as no other journey may humble someone. But he has come back with a fair amount of skill. I see subtle elements of the detailed majesty of Harumafuji’s style in there now. Something has changed, and I think he’s more potent now, than the first time.

What We Are Watching Day 4

Shimanoumi vs Akua – With Asanoyama’s kyujo, the banzuke gap is gone, and we won’t see any more Juryo visitors until and unless someone else drops out. So the first match of the day pits undefeated Shimanoumi vs Akua. They are 3-4 over their career, but right now Shimanoumi is fighting much better than Akua is. Shimanoumi is likely to try and set up a throw, while Akua will try to stay mobile and keep pushing.

Chiyoshoma vs Kotonowaka – Its about time for another Chiyoshoma henka or matta string. He has 0 wins in 2 tries against Kotonowaka, so I guess it’s time to try something other than straight ahead sumo.

Hoshoryu vs Chiyotairyu – Is Chiyotairyu trying a new approach to his sumo, or is he operating in a slower setting because he is hurt? I know he was fairly one dimensional, but some times you just want to see a giant man with sideburns just run some other fellow over. Hoshoryu has yet to hit the dirt in a match, so I will go with momentum and assume he will defeat Chiyotairyu today.

Chiyonokuni vs Kaisei – Chiyonokuni has a losing record against Kaisei, but both of them seem to be in good form and fighting well this month. Chiyonokuni seems to have a lot of fire right now, so I would like to see him put a dent in Kaisei’s 7-3 career lead.

Sadanoumi vs Ichinojo – A battle of sadness. Both of them are 0-3 right now. So the good news is that one of them is going to get a win today.

Ryuden vs Yutakayama – I think Herouth summed it up:

Enho vs Meisei – One of these days Enho is going to win a match. It just kills me to see him completely overwhelmed day after day. But I am going to guess that he may struggle against Meisei on day 4.

Tokushoryu vs Kotoeko – I really like Kotoeko’s chances today. He’s looking very sharp, focused and aggressive as you could want. He also has a comfortable 6-3 career record over Tokushoryu.

Tochinoshin vs Terutsuyoshi – Tochinoshin struggles with Terutsuyoshi’s high maneuver hit and shift sumo style. Its clear that Tochinoshin’s right leg is still an issue, so I expect this to be another tough day for the Georgian.

Takarafuji vs Aoiyama – Finally some good news for Aoiyama, he has an 21-3 advantage over Takarafuji, and he may be able to pick up his first win of the tournament.

Endo vs Tamawashi – I really don’t want to jinx Endo by complimenting his sumo in the opening days of this tournament. So I will say that I expect him to bring a lot of effort and fighting spirit to his match with Tamawashi. But Tamawashi’s has a 13-9 career advantage.

Myogiryu vs Kotoshoho – Myogiryu has yet to find his first win, and he’s got a bit of an opportunity today against Kotoshoho, who is also struggling right now.

Kagayaki vs Tobizaru – Wow, first time match between these two. Goth mode is not working for Kagayaki, and he should just ditch that black mawashi right now. Tobizaru picked up his first win on day 3, so maybe he can start a run now.

Terunofuji vs Okinoumi – Oh my. Master technician Okinoumi against the newly born again kaiju. Their 10-3 records is from a prior era for both of them. I think today’s match is a bit of a blank page, and I am eager to see what will happen. I am looking for Okinoumi to start the match in a “defend and extend” mode, and wait Terunofuji out. This could be the highlight match of the day.

Hokutofuji vs Takayasu – Ole Stompey goes up against Takayasu, who as all over the place on day 3 against Shodai, and was ultimately defeated by classic Shodai technique. I know Andy picked Takayasu to win, but he need so rally today if he wants to give that a shot.

Mitakeumi vs Kiribayama – Kiribayama has yet to score a win in November, and that’s a worry. But he has a 2-0 career advantage over Mitakeumi, both by yorikiri. So I will look for Mitakeumi to defend from letting Kiribayama get his hands inside, and I will expect Kiribayama to put it all up front with a grab for the belt at the tachiai.

Wakatakakage vs Takanosho – Both of these risking stars are 1-2, and looking for a way to rally and stay close to the 50-50 line. Takanosho has a 3-1 career advantage.

Shodai vs Daieisho – I have to favor Shodai for this match, and given Asanoyama’s kyujo, he has to be considered among the favorites for the cup. Daieisho has a slight 5-4 career advantage, but Ozeki Shodai’s sumo continues to improve almost daily.

Takakeisho vs Onosho – When the Grand Tadpole, and the Lesser Tadpole face off, you know there is going to be a lot of pushing and open palms smashing into faces, arms, shoulders and just about any exposed piece of flesh. I have to favor Takakeisho in this one, sorry Onosho.

The scheduling team keeps up the entertainment factor, and there is a wide swath of interesting matches on the torikumi for day 3. I think the most interesting one is giving Terunofuji a match against Onosho. Onosho drove him bodily from the dohyo in September, and even beat him back in 2017 when Terunofuji was still an Ozeki. So lets welcome the middle day of act 1, and make sure the sake is cold and the curry is hot.

What We Are Watching Day 3

Midorifuji vs Akua – Midorifuji comes to the top division to fill the banzuke gap, and maybe today is the day that Akua picks up his first win in November. They are evenly matched, and it comes down to if Akua can get a grip in the first few seconds of the match.

Chiyoshoma vs Shimanoumi – Both have 2-0 records going into day 3, and I am going to hope we see something other than a henka from Chiyoshoma today. Now because it is Chiyoshoma, Shimanoumi needs to be ready for some level of nonsense in the opening moments of the match.

Chiyonokuni vs Kotonowaka – I have a high level of interest in this match. Both of them are fighting surprisingly well for the first act of a basho with limited join practice before hand. They have only had once prior match, which went to Chiyonokuni. Should be a lot of pushing, tugging and slapping around.

Chiyotairyu vs Ichinojo – The good news – one of these guys are going to pick up their first win today. The bad news is that both of them should be fighting better than they have been. Chiyotairyu seems to only be about 80% genki, and Ichinojo seems to have nothing more than “Plan A” on any given day. Ichinojo has a 8-3 career advantage in the series.

Yutakayama vs Kaisei – I can promise you that Kaisei will not face the same challenges today as he overcame day 2. Thought I would find it very amusing to see Yutakayama leap in an attempt to get behind the enormous Brazilian. In truth, I think that Yutakayama is still not quite right with his sumo following his most recent injuries, and I like Kaisei’s chances today.

Hoshoryu vs Enho – I like Enho’s chances today for the simple reason that the size and weight differential is not that large between Enho and Hoshoryu. Granted, Hoshoryu is looking extra badass right now, and Enho seems to have lost the plot. But it’s just a matter of time before Enho rallies.

Ryuden vs Meisei – This should be a good, scrappy match. Meisei is a bit of a brawler anyhow, and you can expect some unexpected sumo at times from Ryuden. I think they will settle into hitting each other around for a bit, before someone decides to throw. Meisei has a slight 8-6 career advantage.

Sadanoumi vs Kotoeko – This one may be “extra scrappy”, as Kotoeko has shown himself to be in a fighting mood this November, and his 2-0 record shows it. Sadanoumi is due for a win, and he is fight well in spite of his 0-2 start. These two are tied 5-5 over their career.

Aoiyama vs Terutsuyoshi – Well, one of them are going to get their first win. But will Big Dan finally fire up the V-Twin? Or is he going to eat his second henka on consecutive days? While I am not a fan of the henka, if Terutsuyoshi employs one today, it will give me a hearty chuckle.

Tokushoryu vs Endo – Tokushoryu has yet to find a way to beat Endo in 9 attempts. Endo is a master tactician and sumo mechanic, so I expect Tokushoryu to struggle today, and ultimately hit the clay.

Takarafuji vs Tamawashi – 23 matches between these two, and it’s 12-11 in favor of Takarafuji, a thin majority indeed. Tamawashi is coming off of a day 2 loss, and I think we will see him fired up to try and keep his score in positive territory.

Tochinoshin vs Kotoshoho – The running question in my head, will we get to see Tochinoshin find a moment to plant his feet and fire up the sky-crane? It’s obvious that his injured right knee is more or less shot, but maybe he can scrape together a couple “power sumo” wins. Otherwise, Kotoshoho is going to shove him around and send him out.

Myogiryu vs Tobizaru – Both come into the match 0-2, and both of them have started well. I think it’s just a matter of which day both of these rikishi will catch fire and start to win. I think Tobizaru will be battling his own demons for most of November, as he did so well at Aki, and now is getting spanked daily. This is a first time match for these two.

Hokutofuji vs Daieisho – Ok, another 2-0 elimination match, but I would say that given their 5-5 record, these two are going to beat on each other without mercy. Hokutofuji will go for big power moves, and Daieisho will bring focus and intensity.

Terunofuji vs Onosho – You might think, oh no – they have the Kaiju beating on the lesser tadpole for day 3! But it seems in their 2 prior meetings, Terunofuji has not found a way to beat Onosho. Now that could change on day 3, as Terunofuji looks like some kind of possessed man, and Onosho has given up his red “power” mawashi. Perhaps the kami that inhabits it needed a vacation and is currently visiting the mother tree in Shirakami Sanchi.

Okinoumi vs Takanosho – Their 2-3 career record shows how much these two can balance their sumo. I am looking for some solid Okinoumi action today, as he usually runs up the score in week 1, and fades quite a bit into week 2.

Mitakeumi vs Kagayaki – A hat tip to the commenter who has labeled what is going on with Kagayaki his “goth mode”, fitting. Well, his goth mode is working about as well as one might expect. I think he will continue to find gloom in his sumo on day 3, as Mitakeumi has already dropped a match he should have won, and needs to gamberize.

Wakatakakage vs Asanoyama – First time meeting, and I am eager to see if that day 2 loss to Terunofuji put a giant Mongolian shaped dent in Asanoyama’s fighting spirit. If Wakatakakage can give him a solid match, it’s going to be a dark day for my regrettable pre-basho prediction.

Takakeisho vs Kiribayama – Is it just me, or does Takakeisho look kind of bored? Maybe he’s just working on his hinkaku, but he seems to not really take too much trouble just yet. Kiribayama beat him once before, but I think the November Takakeisho is doing pretty well thus far.

Shodai vs Takayasu – Will we see the roaring, hairy beast again today? If so, I am betting there is something in the Acme bag of cartoon sumo that Shodai will produce at the last minute to squeeze out a win. Much as I am a Takayasu fan, and want to see him dominate, there is some kind of hex or spell going on with Shodai. Best not to test it out if it comes into play. Shodai holds a narrow 9-8 career lead.

I am delighted to say that the first two days of November have been a real treat to this sumo fan. Some times these basho start and everyone looks pretty fuzzy and not quite ready to compete. For the most part all of the rikishi are delivering quality sumo, and the matches have featured a lot of power, fighting spirit and vigor.

But I think a special mention today must go to Terunofuji. How humbling must it be to go from sumo’s second highest rank to as close to the bottom of the banzuke as anyone would ever care to fall? It takes a special kind of focus to say to yourself, “Nah, I can make it back.” and then do it. Today we got to see an example of his former self, from the days around his yusho, when he was unstoppable. I wish him good health and continued success. He is a marvel to watch fight when he is no his sumo.

Highlight Matches

Chiyoshoma defeats Akiseyama – Please, nobody be surprised that Chiyoshoma resorted to a henka – it’s what he does. It won’t be the last one he uses this tournament.

Shimanoumi defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu put all of his effort into Shimanoumi’s face, while Shimanoumi endured the pain and discomfort to focus center-mass. I can only guess that Chiyotairyu was looking for a quick slap down, but instead found himself without any defense. Shimanoumi improves to 2-0.

Chiyonokuni defeats Akua – Akua is off to a rough start. He charged straight into Chiyonokuni’s soft tachiai, extending his body to make chest to chest contact when Chiyonokuni was not as far forward as anticipated. This left Akua terribly off balance, and Chiyonokuni simply helped him continue the motion down to the clay. Chiyonokuni with a solid 2-0 start.

Kotonowaka defeats Ichinojo – I could see Ichinojo’s frustration as he switched from thrusting to pulling. Kotonowaka was ready for that, he drove forward and took Ichinojo out. 2-0 start for Kotonowaka, in a match that Ichinojo dominated early.

Hoshoryu defeats Yutakayama – Yutakayama looked better today than he has in a while, but it was not enough to overcome an impressively patient Hoshoryu. I have to compliment Hoshoryu on his excellent foot placement, which gave him the stability to shut down Yutakayama’s initial offensive gambit. With Yutakayama stalemated at the center of the dohyo, Hoshoryu employed a leg trip to win the match. 2-0 start for Hoshoryu.

Kaisei defeats Enho – I cannot describe what Enho attempted – I saw references to the Kama Sutra on Twitter, and maybe that’s close enough. It failed in spectacular fashion, leaving Enho frustrated at his 0-2 start, and Kaisei puzzled and slightly anxious.

Ryuden defeats Sadanoumi – I had mused in the preview that these two might deliver quite the battle, and I have to say they did! It was chest to chest from the start, and neither man could find an advantage. With the mawashi battle continuing to swing back and forth, it was seasoned with tripping attempts, throw set ups and a final mutual launch over the edge of the dohyo.

Kotoeko defeats Meisei – Meisei had quite the energetic shove in the opening moments of the match, which sent Kotoeko back. But he rallied, got his right arm underneath Meisei and went to work. When Kotoeko is at this rank, and is feeling genki, he has some really great power sumo, which we got to see today. 2-0 start for Kotoeko.

Tokushoryu defeats Aoiyama – That may have been a revenge henka for September. But it was one of the slowest side steps I have ever seen, both with Tokushoryu move to the left, and Aoiyama’s blundering fowrard.

Endo defeats Terutsuyoshi – I think Terutsuyoshi has become too predictable. Endo seems well prepared and does not suffer Terutsuyoshi’s lateral attack, even for a moment. Endo starts November 2-0.

Takarafuji defeats Tochinoshin – Tochinoshin put all of his effort into getting a left hand grip at the tachiai, but that was easy to anticipate. Takarafuji countered by circling away and worked into a double inside grip. With Tochinoshin’s bum knee, there was no chance for him to set his feet and unleash the sky-crane. Takarafuji starts 2-0.

Kotoshoho defeats Tamawashi – I had expected this match to heavily favor Tamawashi, but Kotoshoho was able to give a measure more than he received. For a brief moment, Tamawashi grabbed for Kotoshoho’s neck to attempt a pull / slap down. That was all of the opening that Kotoshoho needed to shift the balance of the match.

Hokutofuji defeats Tobizaru – You can almost smell Tobizaru’s frustration from here. He’s in a completely new league of opponents now, and he is just 15% below where he needs to be in order to win. I hope he does not get discouraged, because he does in fact have what it takes to be a part of this cohort. He just needs to elevate his sumo a little bit. I do admit that I liked Hokutofuji’s sumo today. He is the opposite of “efficient” sumo, but he sure can crank it up some days. A 2-0 start for Hokutofuji.

Okinoumi defeats Myogiryu – Wow, quite a lot of shoulder power on display today from Okinoumi. He left Myogiryu no route to get his hands placed, and by the time that Myogiryu realized it was not going to work, Okinoumi stepped him over the tawara. 2-0 start for Okinoumi.

Takayasu defeats Kagayaki – Takayasu works out his frustrations over his day 1 loss on Kagayaki, who does a masterful job setting up for a proper fight, but suddenly finds a giant, hairy monster roaring at him and heaving him out of the ring. A great way to tell if Takayasu is likely to win? Watch his feet. In his bad-form Ozeki days, he would lift his feet almost as high as his knees at times. This signals poor balance and over-exertion. Today? He’s Kisenosato style – the soles of his feet are never more than an inch or two above the clay. When that happens – its Takayasu’s match.

Daieisho defeats Mitakeumi – These two must have had a wave of embarrassment when they show up to the basho wearing the same outfit. What better way to resolve things than a total battle that leaves both rolling in the dirt? Daieisho was clearly the aggressor today, and his pull attempt seems to have just been enough to get Mitakeumi off balance for a loss.

Takanosho defeats Onosho – Onosho got one good combo in at the tachiai before Takanosho locked him up and escorted him to the bales. Hopefully that day 1 loss was enough to focus Takanosho and put him back in touch with his sumo.

Takakeisho defeats Wakatakakage – A valiant try by Wakatakakage, but he was up against Takakeisho’s double hand thrusts today. Takakeisho may have gotten his arms / shoulders back in good form, as he is using this thrusts better than he has in the better part of a year. Takakeisho starts 2-0, and Wakatakakage is still looking for his first win.

Shodai defeats Kiribayama – Kiribayama put a lot of energy into his match against Shodai, but the shin-Ozeki stayed calm, focused and firmly planted on the clay. I have to wonder if Shodai is going to be able to keep this kind of sumo up, because it’s quite solid now. He starts November in the 2-0 club.

Terunofuji defeats Asanoyama – Terunofuji dominance over Asanoyama continues. This was a good match for Asanoyama, who frequently gets a strong hold on the mawashi in the first few seconds and takes a moment to set up an offense. Instead, he finds that Terunofuji has studied Asanoyama’s grip, lands a better grip first and hurls the Ozeki down. For fans who just picked up the wonderful sport of sumo, you just saw Ozeki Terunofuji. That’s what fighting him was like a few years ago. Bring your best sumo, but bring your humility, because he’s going to throw you around. Terunofuji joins the 2-0 club.