Before the latest basho, I posted some “storylines of intrigue.” Basically, this was a very unscientific and anecdotal list of things that I thought would be interesting to follow during the previous basho. That basho has finished, so let’s check back on a few of these things, and see if they were, in fact, intriguing plotlines (or if they failed to deliver).
- Isegahama-beya scandal hangover: with a verdict on former Yokozuna Terunofuji’s behaviour relating to an alleged violent incident towards a member of his heya (Hakunofuji) being punted into April, there wasn’t much to draw from on this topic. There certainly wasn’t too much of a hangover in terms of the heya’s results, with the top five ranked ex-Miyagino rikishi all putting in average-to-good performances, and the other Isegahama-homegrown sekitori all registering winning records.
- Aonishiki rope run: sadly, it was clear this was going to die within the first few days and it officially ended inside the first week, as the Ozeki exited nakabi with a 3-5 record. He was out of sorts for most of a tournament which he finishes in kadoban status, and it’s a real shame that there was little-to-no drama on the will-he-won’t-he storyline of Aonishiki’s first run at the sport’s top rank. He will doubtlessly get another crack at it, but when?
- Asahifuji II: As predicted, the man with the auspicious shikona predictably smashed all opponents en-route to another zensho, even toppling a former sekitori in Kiryuko in the Jonidan playoff. At this rate, it would be a bit of a shock if he doesn’t join the 21 club after the next basho.
- Fujishima-beya Makuuchi debutants: Speaking of 21 Club members, the more experienced of the heya’s two top division newbies, Fujiseiun, made an excellent debut. He continued his strong run of form by notching double digit wins and grabbed a fighting spirit prize. Fujiryoga looked genki in the first week but ran out of steam and will drop (narrowly) to the second division after a creditable 7-8, even if it was his first career make-koshi. I wouldn’t say I saw a lot of notable sumo from the pair, solid but unspectacular efforts.
- Ura at home: The Kansai native has had a difficult start to 2026, and his poor form in his hometown basho continues despite the stellar local crowd support. Since returning to the top division in 2021, he’s now only posted 1 winning basho in 5 trips to the EDION Arena, a 31-44 record over that time.
- Kirishima’s potential Ozeki return: Kirishima did indeed punch his ticket back to sumo’s second highest rank, and how. Grabbing his third yusho would ordinarily be considered clinching a promotion in some style, however the circumstances of how his tournament finished felt rather more like ending on a semicolon than an exclamation point. The returning Ozeki won the basho after another opponent (Hoshoryu) lost their bout, having lost his own bout following the other challenger’s (Kotoshoho) earlier loss, and then Kirishima lost another bout on senshuraku for good measure. It’s an amazing achievement and a deserved Yusho, as Kirishima dominated the tournament for the first 13 days, but at the same time, you want to see a title race full of quality rather than a group of challengers who can’t put pressure on the leader. But that was ultimately not the point of this storyline.
- The new joi-jin and Atamifuji: So, how did Churanoumi and Fujinokawa do at their new career highs, and was Atamifuji finally able to make a big step forward in his san’yaku debut? Churanoumi looked overpowered and outclassed throughout the tournament as his 4-11 record would suggest, but Fujinokawa’s high-effort premium-octane all-action sumo saw him rewarded with a last ditch kachi-koshi, a pair of kinboshi and a special prize. As wacky funsters Tobizaru and Ura enter their mid-30s, and soon-to-be 30 year old Midorifuji exits the top division due to health reasons, fans of undersized sumo may have a new hero for the next decade in the 21 year old. Atamifuji, meanwhile, made it a san’yaku debut to remember with a throughly competent tournament, knocking out both Ozeki and landing himself a promotion to Sekiwake when the action returns to Tokyo in May.
- The other lingering questions:
- Will Mitakeumi be able to stave off the drop for another tournament? Yes (barely)
- Can evergreen Takayasu manage to stay fit enough to put together yet another kachi-koshi and extend his run, already the sixth highest man in the division at the age of 36? No, but he should remain in san’yaku as lksumo has covered.
- Will Enho rebound from the devastating final loss that put paid to his long-awaited Juryo re-promotion last time out and mount a strong enough campaign this time? Yes, and there was much rejoicing!
- Was Shishi‘s development for real in the last tournament, or was his late-basho collapse indicative of his real current level? No, although he started strongly, but his collapse in week 2 against largely poor opposition was a disappointment.
- Will Takasago’s green dragon Asasuiryu get promoted and join Asahakuryu and Asakoryu in assembling their heya’s Power Rangers in the top division – and will someone make their shimekomi please match their shikona? No, and that’s probably the reason why!
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Aonishiki’s setback prompted me to look for ozeki going kadoban on their debut and still managing to reach yokozuna, and there is just one example after WW2 — none other than Akebono — and only 6 overall. It took Akebono 3 more basho to secure his yokozuna promotion, let’s see if Aonishiki can follow in Akebono’s footsteps again and join this rather exclusive club.
Only this wasn’t Aonishiki‘s ozeki debut, of course…
How silly, Aonishiki has been rising so fast it’s easy to lose track. What’s interesting, it’s the first time since Wakahaguro in 1959-1960 for an ozeki to win (or even be the runner up) in his debut basho only to MK in the second, so this is an even more rare feat.
The SumoDB is great, isn’t it? All those stats one can find there; incredible.
Here‘s another rope run related one:
Since 1958, mind U, 34 times ozeki went kadoban on their (probable) yokozuna run. Seven of the 20 involved rikishi still got to the highest rank later.
Here‘s the (hopefully correct) query:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&group_by=rikishi&showcareerhigh=on&form1_rank=O&form1_year=1958-now&form1_y=on&form1_yd=on&form1_jy=on&form2_rank=O&form2_wins=%3C8&gsort_by=careerhigh
SumoDB is decidedly awesome! I’d also add a >11 wins condition to the first basho to filter out definitively ineligible results.
Good point. Though maybe in case of a jun jusho the difference to the winner might be more decisive than the number of wins?
Anyway, as I couldn’t tell I kept them all. Better too many possible rope runs than missing ones I guessed.
Also such a shame, Aonishiki is the first after Akebono to reach sekiwake without ever having a losing score, the parallel would be nice indeed.
Funnily, if we take the better fitting comparison, which is kadoban after the second basho as ozeki, there still seems to be only one rikishi who reached the yokozuna rank after that setback: Mienoumi (but he wasn’t on a rope run, then).
And finally, here are John Gunning‘s thoughts about the missed rope run including very interesting comparisons:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2026/03/18/sumo/aonishiki-osaka-basho-disapointment/
Re the 21 club: surprisingly it doesn’t seem to be very attractive to belong to that small group. Of the nine rikishi achieving this since 1960, only three reached the komusubi rank and none got higher.
Also, if you look at the rikishi starting in Jonokuchi at the ripe old age of 23 with 2 consecutive 7-0’s only Aoiyama has managed to reach sanyaku. On the other hand, Takerufuji has made history with his Makuuchi Yusho, and were he to have Asahifuji’s more sturdy physique who knows where he’d be right now.
Yes, Takerufuji: he had an incredible start to his sumo career. One and a half years or nine basho after their debuts, he had only two wins less than the record setting Aonishiki, but then came that darn injury. As U say: what would be, if not…
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=15&n_basho=4&rowcount=2&show_total=on&sum_wins=0&sum_range=9&show_sum=on&showcareerhigh=on&form1_year=1958-now&form1_jk=on&form2_jd=on&form3_sd=on&form4_ms=on&sort_by=sum_wins
But Asahifuji is a special case, isn’t he? As I understand it, he could have entered 4 (?) years ago if it hadn’t been for the one foreigner per stable rule, and he has been living in the heya and practicing with top wrestlers for all those years just getting ready until he could finally enter a basho. It’s not like he only recently decided to give it a go.
Most late starters have some kind of university/high school amazumo background and just let their tsukedashi qualification run out or never acquired one in the first place, it’s rare to join at such an age without any experience at all and such recruits usually don’t last very long.
Re Churanoumi: yes, he had a weak basho and still he was probably the one who destroyed Aonishiki’s rope run. Though the Ukrainian lost against Yoshinofuji on day 2, that was only a small setback as the young giants killer is a nemesis. But to lose against Churanoumi and be only 2-2 after day 4 a was hard blow of which Aonishiki wasn’t able to recover (there were rumors of an injury, but it seems they haven’t materialized).
I predict Fujiryoga stays.
would be nice!
Having taken another look at it, you’re probably not wrong there, although it is a bit depressing that there is such a lack of promotable candidates that the 3rd in line is a 8-7 at J3E.
I know there’s not a ton of precedent for keeping Onokatsu up, but equally, if you look at everyone ranked M5-M7 who’ve posted 1 win since the modern era, none of those results have
(as far as I can tell) happened with a banzuke that extends all the way to M17. So I think in terms of number of ranks dropped it may be more of an edge case than it might seem. I’m not sure what they will or should do but there’s probably an argument for Onokatsu at 17W and Fujiryoga at J1E. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see Fujiryoga hold on though.
In this century there have been four cases with TWO wins from M6.
Two fell to juryo, one fell to the last position of makuuchi and the fourth stayed in, also on the last position and only because two sanyaku retired!
From that point of view it would be a huge surprise if Onokatsu stayed in.
Therefore, if they wanted Fujiryoga down, it would rather be Daiseizan to profit imo, though that seems unlikely too.
Yeah, Juryo is not exactly stacked atm. I would put the odds of occupying 17W in the order (1) Fujiryoga, (2) Onokatsu, (3) Daiseizan.
I’m honestly not down on Kirishima’s two losses to end the basho. If anything he was playing with house money and he knew it.
Look at how he lost those two. First, he tried to go low on Aonishiki, the master of the low stance. Then, he tried a throw on Kotozakura, one of the biggest rikishi out there. He challenged himself a little extra in those two matches to beat the current ozeki at their own games, and those efforts didn’t pay off there, but man what if they had?