Well, with the sumo media, fans and others already writing the obituary of a thoroughly weird basho and what it means for the sport, it’s worth remembering we’re not even halfway home.

That being said, this is clearly a tournament for the underdogs and one where hitting top form at the right moment could pay off in a massive way for one of sumo’s new starlets.

One of the most refreshing things about the Hatsu Basho this year was the fact that so many top, top performers put in top, top performances. While I don’t think we’re nearing a return to the bad old days of the past few years, the current big names have fluffed a chance to illustrate their dominance. That being said, a Maegashira yusho is no certainty: the likes of Abi and Hoshoryu in particular appear as they could at least be in the conversation deep into the basho.

Day 6 Matches

Takarafuji (3-2 at J1) vs Daiamami (1-4): It’s too early for this to be any kind of de facto exchange bout, but it is a match that will impact both the challenger’s promotion prospects and the incumbent’s demotion prospects. Uncle Takarafuji (and yes he is the uncle now that Aminishiki runs a stable) has won all three previous meetings. It is a bit weird to call a veteran of 12 years in the top division the challenger, and he probably should be favoured to win this in any case.

Nishikifuji (3-2) vs Roga (3-2): Nishikifuji turned up the juice in his last bout and if he can continue to fight with that level of engagement and determination, we won’t need to worry about any kind of demotion for him. The manner of Roga’s defeat on Day 5 was a disappointment. Nishikifuji has taken two from three against him previously, and despite the small sample size I’ll back him here in what should be a yotsu-zumo bout.

Ryuden (4-1) vs Myogiryu (2-3): Ryuden continues to look well up for it, and he meets a Myogiryu who doesn’t seem 100% dialed in. Ryuden has a 7-6 edge but five of those wins have come in the last six meetings, so he gets the tip this time. He could be a dark horse into the second week.

Takerufuji (5-0) vs Churanoumi (3-2): You can only beat what’s in front of you, but Takerufuji is probably going to get opponents who are a step up in quality from here on in. I do think that Churanoumi is a level above what Takerufuji has faced so far, whether that’s in terms of current form or overall ability. If you’re an Isegahama beya fan you’ll certainly get your fix with three of the first four matches today featuring their rikishi. This will be a tricky one for Takerufuji and they’ve never met before. Surprise is a powerful element and I’ll give the rookie the nod again here.

Shonannoumi (4-1) vs Endo (2-3): What has impressed me about Shonannoumi is his ability to stay calm and unruffled and just go about his business. Endo has also been staying calm, maybe too calm. Maybe this match should take place in a quiet kissaten near the arena. In any case, given the protagonists, this should be a belt duel.

Kitanowaka (1-4) vs Sadanoumi (3-2): A tale of two Day 5 losers. Kitanowaka was desperately disappointing against Daiamami, where I had said that a win for the latter would probably consign them both to the drop and I didn’t see anything to change my opinion. Sadanoumi, on the other hand, was valiant and determined despite going down to Ryuden. The veteran has won their only prior matchup and I think Sadanoumi picks up win number 4 this time.

Hokutofuji (1-4) vs Ichiyamamoto (2-3): I correctly tipped Hokutofuji to finally get off the mark yesterday, but it gives me no pleasure to see him at this position. I once felt he could be a future Ozeki, fulfilling the same kind of role as Takakeisho. Those days ended due to injury, and per a chat in the comments yesterday, it’s worth remembering as we gauge the potential of new talents. The disciple of the association chairman has won his only previous meeting with Ichiyamamoto, a guy who runs very hot and cold. I think Hokutofuji might just go on a run from here.

Onoshodai (both 3-2): Shodai is infuriating. I couldn’t believe how easily he was beaten again by Mitakeumi. I thought that Onosho might go on a losing run and he’s lost two in a row, but having seen yesterday’s bouts, I just get the feeling that he has a shot here. Shodai leads their head-to-head matchup 8-4, but they haven’t met in a couple years since he was an Ozeki. These days, it’s hard to know who to trust.

Mitakeumi (3-2) vs Takayasu (4-1): Takayasu has an absolutely dominant 22-9 record against Mitakeumi which has been pretty consistent throughout both of their glory years and has continued through the latter’s downfall. Only a crazy person would back Takayasu to yusho after so many collapses – I don’t even think Andy is that brave – but I do have a feeling that with the mess unraveling at the top of the banzuke, he can get himself in the conversation and in any case has a good shot in this match.

Kotoshoho (2-3) vs Tamawashi (1-4): Just because Kotoshoho lost in disappointing fashion to a pusher-thruster yesterday doesn’t mean the same fate will befall him today. But in a match like this where there’s not a lot to choose between the two (3-3 lifetime rivalry), I think Tamawashi’s experience will give him the edge.

Midorifuji (2-3) vs Gonoyama (3-2): Gonoyama should be the aggressor in this match. He lost their only meeting in January and to beat the wily Midorifuji, he needs to keep the smaller man well clear of his mawashi. I think the day off will reinvigorate him and we’ll see some powerful sumo from the Osaka rikishi.

Onosato (5-0) vs Meisei (2-3): When the schedules came out yesterday, this won’t have been a match that Onosato would necessarily have wanted. That being said, with the possible exception of his first match, he’s already seen off a number of high octane fighters who are not totally dissimilar to Meisei in their approach. We know that Onosato is going to look for a massive hit at the tachiai and look to blast his opponent away before switching to yotsu only if necessary once he gets near the edge. Meisei is going to want to get both hands inside as soon as possible in order to execute his style of sumo, and unless Onosato gets is unbalanced, I can’t see that happening.

Atamifuji (3-2) vs Asanoyama (2-3): The veteran has won both prior meetings. Atamifuji notched a wonderful win over his Ozeki foe on Day 5, whereas Asanoyama’s approach could hardly have been more predictable (Hoshoryu must have thought so as well). Both of these guys have seen all four Ozeki already (and the Yokozuna in Asanoyama’s case, and of course Atamifuji won’t fight him), so from here it should get quite a bit easier and both look good bets for a kachi-koshi. I think Asanoyama will even up both their records.

Daieisho (2-3) vs Ura (3-2): I’m going to tip against the local Kansai man here, but Ura is providing us with a wonderful tournament. Ura has also seen all of the top 5 men on the banzuke, so things should get somewhat better for him in the second week and he’s provided himself with a great platform to challenge to return to san’yaku. I must admit, I feared for him before the basho. That being said, Daieisho owns him to the tune of an 11-3 advantage in their matchups, seems to have awakened, and I can foresee a round man in a pink mawashi with a happy face bouncing off the dohyo and into the crowd.

Nishikigi (1-4) vs Wakamotoharu (3-2): Wakamotoharu leads their series 8-3 and will be relieved to get an opponent who wants to invite him in close to demonstrate his considerable belt skill after the last two days of oshi-madness. Nishikigi has looked a bit lost since his outstanding defeat of the Yokozuna, so I think the sekiwake gets the nod here.

Kirishima (1-4) vs Oho (2-3): I felt Oho could cause the Yokozuna problems and just had a feeling in the back of my mind that he actually might, but the kinboshi wasn’t shocking or surprising. That doesn’t take away from the achievement, and he’ll probably have been up all night reliving that and getting ready to go out and do it again. Kirishima has got himself up and running finally, and I think Oho winning this might even be a bigger shock, despite the fact that the Ozeki does give up the odd match to pusher-thrusters.

Abi (5-0) vs Kotonowaka (3-2): Somehow, Kotonowaka leads this series 7-2 and has won the last six in a row. So from that perspective, it’s Abi’s stiffest test yet in the basho. He has almost completed his san’yaku tour, but I think this might be where the perfect start comes to an end. While I can see Abi beating Hoshoryu and the Yokozuna (if he gets that far), Kotonowaka’s problems arise when he comes unbalanced and while Abi possesses great lateral movement, he’s been at his best when plowing forward in this basho. He got a bit lucky against Nishikigi and an opponent like Kotonowaka is more likely to punish him, however disappointing the latter’s sloppiness was against the trickery of Ura. So, I’m going to go for Kotonowaka here.

Takakeisho (3-2) vs Hiradoumi (3-2): This is a first time meeting of two guys who have completely opposite identities. Hiradoumi wants to fly forward and get both hands inside as soon as possible, Takakeisho is a man who looks like he wants to keep the whole world away. While Hiradoumi isn’t a belt specialist per se, I think Takakeisho is going to be wary here and I can see him winning with one of his big swats. Tsukiotoshi or something.

Tobizaru (2-3) vs Hoshoryu (4-1): Somehow, this is the 21st meeting of these two guys, and it’s closer than you might think with Hoshoryu leading the rivalry 12-8. Tobizaru is just a giant pain in the side of everyone he faces and he certainly looks up for this basho. Hoshoryu has quietly been putting up the results. While I think there will be opponents who can trouble him (the Saitama Boyz Abi and Daieisho being two prime candidates), he certainly looks like the most composed of the Ozeki and Yokozuna at this stage. For that reason I think this is a must-win match for him. Hoshoryu has been doing some fairly reactive sumo, luring his opponents in to set up his trademark throw with minimum fuss, or waiting for the opponent to make the mistake. I think he will win here despite that again being the case. Tobizaru will try and stick all over him, but I think the Ozeki will know what to do with that.

Terunofuji (2-3) vs Takanosho (1-4): At the time of writing, no kyujo has been announced for the Yokozuna but I absolutely would not be surprised to see this be a much needed fusen-sho for Takanosho. While I wasn’t shocked by the manner of Oho’s kinboshi against Terunofuji, given that it was a first time encounter with a fired up opponent who fights in a style that the Yokozuna has had issues with in the past (hello, Tamawashi), I was disappointed and I did think the Yokozuna would do enough to win. At this point this question of his withdrawal seems like when, not if, as he seems unlikely to now go undefeated the rest of the way through the san’yaku ranks. He and Isegahama will know better. If they don’t know better already, however, Takanosho likes to get both hands inside, the Yokozuna will clamp down on them, and then it’s just a matter of who has the fitness and ability to execute.