Ones to Watch: Natsu 18

EDION Arena - Enho vs Wakatakakage - Haru 2018 Day 8 Juryo
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We are less than 12 hours out from the start of the Natsu basho! So it’s time to check in with our up and coming friends from the lower divisions. This time we say goodbye to Hakuyozan and Wakatakakage, promoted to Juryo. This post will also be a very abbreviated version of this feature (analysis wise – the list is actually longer than usual) as I am under the weather, however I intend to gambarize and will be back with you with some coverage from the tournament and the usual analysis on all of these guys at the midpoint and at the end. Perhaps you will see me at Kokugikan!

Makushita

Ms1 Chiyonoumi (Kokonoe) – The 25 year old has run his way through the Makushita meat-grinder with a series of impressive performances to leave himself poised for promotion with a kachi-koshi here.

Ms5 Ichiyamamoto (Nishonoseki) – This will be the oshi-tending rikishi’s 8th tournament. He has stern competition at this part of the banzuke but has only put together less than 5 wins on one occasion in the bottom tiers and no losing records. A good tournament here should see him move into the pole position or better at Aki Nagoya.

Ms6 Enho (Miyagino) – He’s back! We love Enho, but there’s no doubting that he was over-promoted to Juryo due to wild circumstances with a record that usually would not merit it. Now, unless he grabs an unlikely yusho, he’ll hopefully get a couple more tournaments to season himself, develop his physicality and bounce back before the end of the year.

Ms7 Murata (Takasago) – This is also the 8th tournament for this big man, however while Ichiyamamoto got here “the hard way,” Murata was a Sandanme tsukedashi starter. Either way, it’s not where you start, it’s where you finish.

Ms13 Tomokaze (Oguruma) – Tournament number 6 for the big osha-fighter from Oguruma-beya, and probably the first one in which he will face strong opposition. He should run into Toyonoshima and that will be a good one to watch, and a good test for the veteran against a newcomer here with a developed physique.

Ms13 Wakatakamoto (Arashio) – I’m going for -takamoto over-motoharu of the remaining brothers to watch this time out. While both his brothers are ranked higher, he’s on a solid 16-5 run since coming back from injury and in Vegas you always just play that hot hand.

Ms20 Midorifuji (Isegahama) – First time on the list for the slight man from Isegahama. We’ve talked at length in the Heya Power Rankings about the stable’s decline relative to others for various reasons, but there is some light and some hope and it could be that this man is starting to put it together at this level after a 6-1 tournament in Osaka in what was his 9th tournament. Curiously, he loves a katasukashi, having won 13 bouts with the slightly less common technique in his young career.

Ms26 Ryuko (Onoe) – The 19 year old is still young for the level, and is yet another man making his 8th tournament appearance, but suffered his first make-koshi last time out, so it’s all about the rebound as he tries to keep up with some of his more esteemed mates.

Ms30 Nishikifuji (Isegahama) – The other hot talent of Isegahama got a bit of a mulligan last time as he fell down the banzuke having succumbed to the heya flu in January. Now he gets a second bite at the division from mid table, and hopefully this time we can see what the youngster, who has two lower division yusho, can do.

Ms36 Tanabe (Kise) – Another guy who had a gnarly Hatsu, Tanabe put it right in his return to Sandanme, reclaiming his impressive form with the 4th 6-1 record in his 6 career tournaments. The 23 year old university man should be placed well to continue making progress. Kise have a lot of good talents right now, and I skipped over Kizaki who has been included in this feature before, but has had middling results of late.

Ms50 Inoue (Kise) – Another first time member of the list, and it’s the man ranked opposite Ura. The 18 year old has more tournament experience than many members of this list combined, but started to put it together in 2018 with a pair of back to back records that saw him finally out of Sandanme purgatory after a couple years. 4 losses will probably send him back, so he hasn’t got a lot of margin for error.

Ms52 Shoji (Musashigawa) – The first of a few Musashigawa men passes Mushashikuni by the narrowest of margins in the race to give the heya a sekitori. It’s just the 5th tournament for a man who struggled in his first go at sandanme after grabbing two yusho to start his career, so we’ll be a little conservative with our optimism this time out.

Ms52 Musashikuni (Musashigawa) – Let us not forget that this stable has two Americans (Wakaichiro is technically not the foreign rikishi) and Musashimaru’s nephew has escalated himself back up to the third division for what will be his ninth tournament at the level after just a one-basho stay in Sandanme. We’ll look for him to get the consistency to stick around and start to consolidate his place at the level this time out, so I’d have him doing better than Shoji if forced to pick.

Sandanme

Sd40 Kizakiumi (Kise) – The Sandanme tsukedashi entrant from Haru – and brother of Kizaki – put “six of the best” on the board, but did it largely against Jonidan opposition. He gets a decent bump up the rankings this time and a similar return will see him join the umpteen rikishi higher up this post in Aki. If he can keep moving fast, it will be good to see another sibling rivalry in the sekitori promotion fight.

Sd42 Tsukahara (Kasugano) – It’s basho number 3 for the Kasugano newcomer, the first two having ended in championship glory. I limited the list to 20 rikishi until now, but I’m not making the mistake of leaving him out again, so we’re going to start to follow his performances more carefully. Like Kizakiumi he’s in with a decent shout of a step up if he can put together another title challenge.

Sd73 Torakio (Naruto) – Ever seen a photo of someone and think, “wow, that person just looks like a thoroughly nice and decent person?” That’s what Naruto-oyakata looks like to me. I haven’t met him or his fellow Bulgarian disciple but both men will be wishing for better as Torakio takes a second stab at the division following an injury-inspired nightmare in January.

Sd77 Kototebakari (Sadogatake) – The big bopper takes two promotions from two with 12 wins from 14. Here’s where the opposition should start to become a little more challenging for a man of his larger build… or perhaps he’ll just continue bulldozing his way through the banzuke.

Sd89 Hayashi (Futagoyama – moves from Fujishima) – Mike Hayashi follows the former Miyabiyama to Futagoyama beya and so in his debut for the new stable, his 4th tournament in total, the half-Filipino man will look to establish himself at his new level. He had to recover from an 0-3 hole last time out, so expectations will be somewhat tempered as the 19 year old finds his footing.

Jonidan

Jd6 Yoshoyama (Tokitsukaze) – The Mongolian started to put it all together in his second tournament in March after surprisingly struggling a bit in his Jonokuchi debut. At this rank the erratic young talent should be as nailed on for a promotion as anyone on this list…

Jd11 Naya (Otake) – … apart from maybe this guy. The Grandson of Taiho™ blasted his way through his debut tournament, inking a mammoth promotion and will probably do the same again here. It would be shocking if he’s not got to Makushita by year’s end.

Jd14 Wakaichiro (Musashigawa) – Bruce covered his prospects in a little more detail earlier today on the site. We’ll be looking for a third promotion to Sandanme for the Texan rikishi this time out. A matchup with Naya would also certainly be interesting.

Jd42 Hoshoryu (Tatsunami) – Asashoryu’s Nephew™ is a more slight fellow than Naya and his loss to said starlet perhaps overshadowed his wholly expected impressive result last time as well. There are a handful of other competitors (like Nakanishi who dropped his only Jonokuchi bout to Hoshoryu) but it’s possible the two men may again meet in a final bout or playoff.

Jonokuchi

There are an enormous – not unprecedented, but still a lot – amount of new names added to the banzuke for this tournament after the usual annual influx of new names into mae-zumo in Haru. Massive props are due to everyone at SumoForum (including frequent Tachiai commenter Asashosakari) who put together a pretty amazing resource thread of all of the new recruits this time out, cobbled together from various news posts/tweets/etc. We’re just going to have to see what happens, but here are three names worth watching:

Jk16 Terasawa (Takasago) & Jk16 Kawamoto (Kasugano) – These guys are the two college entrants this time, and Terasawa in particular has a good pedigree having narrowly missed Sandanme tsukedashi qualification. There’s plenty more in the SumoForum thread which frequent readers of this column are recommended to check out.

Jk25 Iwamori (Hakkaku) – The stable that brought you the hotly talented Hokutofuji now brings in a rikishi with… absolutely zero sumo experience. Seriously. Apparently he was picked on at school for his big-bodied physique, and now he has an opportunity to feel good about himself. So, that’s a cool feel-good story. And, by the way, he won 2 from 4 in the maezumo tournament, so he’s already put dirt on more foes than our man Hattorizakura has managed. He could be a fun one to follow.

6 thoughts on “Ones to Watch: Natsu 18


  1. When you say Ichiyamamoto with a kachi-koshi will be at pole position for Aki, do you actually mean it will take him both Natsu and Nagoya to get to Ms1?

    For the benefit of people who don’t have a full genealogical chart of Grand Sumo 😉, Kizakiumi is the brother of Kizaki (who was the one to keep their original surname), of the same heya.

    I think I mentioned it on Twitter: Naya’s two wins against Hoshoryu – one in Maezumo and one in Jonokuchi – are the only difference in their records. And these two wins were enough to send them 31 ranks apart by the time they got to Jonidan. I don’t suppose this is exceptional – but it’s remarkable to watch it happen before one’s eyes so to speak. We don’t often track rikishi all the way from maezumo.


    • I realised as I was watching Grand Sumo Preview after I posted this …. that it’s only May 🙂

      I’ll likely get in there and make a couple edits in the AM


    • Re: Naya & Hoshoryu – true, but not a deep catalogue of matches there to pull from either in terms of their lifetime records!! And it’s actually just the one single loss from Jonokuchi that’s the difference owing to the size of Jonidan. Re: Naya, The last 7 Jonokuchi yusho winners at Jk18 all ended up in the Jonidan 21 or higher. And for Hoshoryu, he’s actually sealed the joint-3rd best result (with Kototebakari) for someone posting 6 wins at Jk19 in the last 50 years. So it could have been worse for Hoshoryu, but the banzuke crew has been more generous lately!

      It was really crazy last year when after 3 – full tournaments – you had Enho 21-0, Tanabe at 18-3 having lost all 3 to Enho and Fukuyama at 18-3 having lost all 3 to Tanabe. But those guys aren’t going to be seeing Enho again for a while now.

      In light of that, think about this… let’s say Naya and Hoshoryu meet again on the last day and they are both 6-0, or they end up in a 7-0 playoff and Naya wins again… and then they both get promoted to Sandanme, and end up something like 60 ranks apart, and then the same scenario plays out (likely only in a playoff). By that point, Naya could position himself an entire basho (or more) closer than Hoshoryu to the professional ranks, just based on those three matches!


      • Pretty standard promotion for Hoshoryu, I’d say, jonokuchi 6-1’s always move up 80-ish ranks these days.

        And yeah, that 7th win is rather valuable for the banzuke. 🙂 As it should be, considering 7-0 records are 7 times less likely than 6-1’s.


    • I feel Naya and Hoshoryu will create a long and closely entwined history on their rise through the ranks to the top tier 😉🔝


  2. Fascinating stuff as always. I have been watching some of Tsukahara’s matches and he is definitely my choice as the NtBT: big, fast, strong and aggressive. I’m going to stick my neck out and say makuuchi by the end of 2019.

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