Countdown To Banzuke (番付) – Handicapping Demotions


Hokuho Beat Down

Now that we have had a look at the results of Nagoya, we get a clearer picture of who will rise in rank, and who will fall. As mentioned in Countdown To Banzuke (番付) – September Basho, Nagoya was a blood bath in the figurative and literal sense. For every 2 Sumotori with winning records, 3 had losing records, 5 withdrew from injuries, and practically everyone was banged up by the time it all wrapped with Harumafuji winning the cup.

2 Ozeki Kadoban (角番)

A big story to me is that 2 Ozeki are on the bubble for the September Tokyo tournament. While much of the Sumo world focus on if Kisenosato will make Yokozuna and break the Japanese drought, the far more interesting race is for the next Ozeki or two. When an Ozeki has a losing tournament, they are “Kadoban”, or at risk of demotion. When they have 2 losing tournaments in a row, they drop to the lower San-yaku ranks. This could open an Ozeki slot for some of the hard changing Sumotori to climb in rank. On the bubble for Tokyo are

  • Goeido – Could not pull off a win on the final day for kachi-koshi (勝ち越し)
  • Kotoshogiku – Withdrew due to injuries

Noteworthy Predicted Demotions – East

  • Kaisei – Sadly his 7-8 record means he is going to likely drop a rank
  • Kotoyuki – He had an abysmal tournament going 2-13. The Sen-yaku ranks are tough to hang onto, and he will be back to Maegashira, I would think.
  • Mitakeumi – At East Maegashira 1, he had a tough slot to fill. At 5-10 he will be looking to improve in Tokyo.
  • Osunaarashi – The Egyptian was out early with an injury. If he is healthy and is in the Tokyo September Banzuke, it is likely at a much lower Maegashira rank.
  • Toyonoshima – Did not even make it to his first bout, withdrew due to injuries. He is likely back to Juryo ranks for Tokyo

Noteworthy Predicted Demotions – West

  • Tochinoshin – The West Sekiwake is likely to be demoted due to a 6-9 result on Nagoya. He had some great matches, but as stated above, life in the San-yaku ranks is very tough.
  • Ikioi – A fan favorite, he went 5-10 and is likely to be well down the Banzuke, even though he was able to drop and injured Hakuho with a Slippi-toshi.
  • Endo – Dreadful tournament for this guy. 3-12 he was definitely not on top of his game.
  • Aminishiki – Withdrawing before his first bout, he is back to Juryo for Tokyo in all likelihood.
  • Sadanofuji – at 4-11, he is also headed back to Juryo, which sadly is not part of the NHK feed into America. Hope to see him back in the Makuuchi ranks soon.

Next up, we will look at which Rikishi are expected to rise when the Banzuke is published on August 28th

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