Konbanwa to our friends and readers! The final day of the basho is upon us. Thanks to those who might have enjoyed, or at least entertained or even tolerated the match previews earlier in the basho. Unfortunately I have been entertaining business associates the last few days in Tokyo, and while some of you might have punished me by handing in my intai papers like a mad oyakata, Andy has been tolerant enough to let me come and go.

It is, however, 2am here in Japan at the time of writing, so let’s just get down to business in a manner that I will try to abbreviate in spite of my long winded nature. Who’s going to win the yusho?! We can’t not preview Senshuraku, surely?!

Day 15 Matches

Kitanowaka (3-11) vs Churanoumi (6-8): Kitanowaka has ended up where I thought Daiamami would. Churanoumi has been…. fine? This match isn’t really all that relevant, as Kitanoumi is going down and Churanoumi will stay up. It’s a battle of pride and positioning for May, although Kitanowaka does at least appear to have started to look like he could eventually belong at this level. I think we’ll see him back here in Nagoya.

Ichiyamamoto (6-8) vs Ryuden (6-8): Another dead rubber. I’m not massively surprised at these results, although Ryuden did start the basho well in terms of his performance. He’s really tailed off. These two have massively opposing styles, with Ryuden wanting the belt and Ichiyamamoto wanting him away from it. Ryuden leads the series 3-2.

Endo (5-9) vs Mitakeumi (8-6): 23rd meeting of the two on the dohyo, with Mitakeumi up 14-8 in the series. Endo is heading to Juryo, whether he will fight there is anyone’s guess. Mitakeumi is probably happy to get kachi-koshi. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Endo take this bout. Three straight double-digit losses to get dumped out of the top division would be some indignity for one of the enduring names of the last decade.

Shodai (7-7) vs Nishikifuji (8-6): Shodai should have his kachi-koshi sewn up long ago, and has no one else to blame for a series of uninspired performances punctuated by one or two displays of authority. Nishikifuji has done well to keep himself up. This might be a match with a few meaty arms swinging around. I can see Nishikifuji wanting to run up the score, so it might not be easy for Shodai, despite the fact he’s the one with anything to fight for. Shodai’s won both prior meetings.

Roga (7-7) vs Kotoshoho (7-7): Hell yeah! It’s a Darwin match, one of only two on the day. It’s also a first time matchup of two guys who can feel fairly happy to have basically held serve going into the next tournament. Kotoshoho has developed himself as a bit of an all-rounder but he’s still more comfortable off the belt whereas Roga will want to land a grip, which should make it somewhat of an intriguing encounter.

Hokutofuji (5-9) vs Shonannoumi (9-5): Another nothing matchup, two guys jostling for banzuke placement. Hokutofuji has been desperately disappointing but he does at least go out every day giving it all he has. With Shonannoumi, that’s somewhat unclear, of course, due to his calm nature. These guys have opposing styles, but also opposing energies. It’s easier to root for the guy who goes buck wild so hopefully Hokutofuji can stem the bleeding a bit and leave himself in a somewhat decent position for Natsu with a win here.

Daiamami (7-7) vs Takayasu (10-4): If you told me after four days that Daiamami would still be in with a shout of a kachi-koshi on senshuraku, I might have asked you where you got whatever you were smoking, and which countries is it legal in. Takayasu has had a very good tournament, honestly I think if he goes to 11 then he deserves to be in the sansho conversation. I don’t think this will be easy for Takayasu because Daiamami is on the bubble and at one of the few positions where 7-8 probably won’t be good enough. Have they met before? No they have not.

Myogiryu (6-8) vs Tamawashi (6-8): This match has far more potential consequences for Myogiryu than Tamawashi. There will be a combined age of 76 on the dohyo here, wowzers. What a weird stat. Anyway, Tamawashi leads the series 12-7, it will be a nothing burger of a match for him, but Myogiryu will need a win to be absolutely sure of not going down to Juryo.

Takerufuji (12-2) vs Gonoyama (10-4): At the time of writing, we haven’t seen any updates on Takerufuji, who exited Saturday’s match in big wheelchair thanks to his defeat to reformed bad boy Asanoyama. Gonoyama doesn’t seem to properly get the love of the local crowd compared to other Kansai dudez™, but I think he’s done very well. You’d think the key here would be all in the tachiai but the foot injury from Takerufuji makes the question of how much power he can exert a very poignant one. On normal form you’d back Takerufuji to turn away Gonoyama’s thrusting advances and claim the yusho, but we may be looking at a playoff if he isn’t fit, and you’d fear for him in that scenario. Tachiai friend Kintamayama questioned whether we may see a kyujo yusho. That would be very sad, and I don’t think it will come to that.

Midorifuji (7-7) vs Sadanoumi (7-7): Our second and final Darwin match sees Midorifuji taking on an opponent he’s beaten 5 times out of 6. That sort of dominance didn’t help him yesterday, and I think these kinds of matches are a one-off. That said, Midorifuji has kept up a strong level of performance, whereas Sadanoumi has faded badly in the second week, so the small man has somehow got to be the favourite here. It would be nice to sign off the basho with yet another signature katasukashi win from him.

Tobizaru (8-6) vs Onosho (8-6): Not a ton to say here, Tobizaru has won 4 out of 6 against Onosho. Both have had good tournaments and have well deserved winning records.

Takanosho (5-9) vs Meisei (5-9): Meisei leads the series 10-4. Both want two arms inside, both had pretty forgettable tournaments (apart from a kinboshi).

Ura (6-8) vs Oho (6-8): I think Oho’s done unbelievably well to get to this record. I wasn’t totally convinced by the call on Ura’s Day 14 loss. I did, however, tip him for a 6-9 and that’s taking into account that Oho is the kind of opponent I thought he would beat. I think he will be trying to put some smiles on the faces of the Osaka fans after yesterday’s disqualification. Ura has so far beaten Oho on all four occasions they’ve lined up.

Kinbozan (6-6-2) vs Nishikigi (2-12): Nishikigi might have been thinking he should have taken three days off in the middle of this basho like Kinbozan, it certainly couldn’t have hurt him! Kinbozan has come back very strongly from that injury layoff: in spite of the fact he’s make-koshi, he would have been heading to Juryo, and a win here could well preserve his same rank. Saying all that, this just feels like the kind of match Nishikigi should win, he’s won 2 out of their 3 meetings to date. Nishikigi will want to fight this match at close range whereas Kinbozan will be more comfortable in oshi-zumo circumstances.

Abi (8-6) vs Atamifuji (8-6): Abi has taken the foot off the gas pedal since falling out of the yusho race, but he will be promoted to Sekiwake so the basho can be counted as a success. Atamifuji, equally, has done well, and will want a 9th win to put himself in the san’yaku frame (however unlikely). Atamifuji has won both prior meetings, and again this will be a case of opposing styles, and whether the oshi guy can keep the yotsu guy away.

Asanoyama (9-5) vs Wakamotoharu (8-6): Asanoyama is coming back to san’yaku and Wakamotoharu is sliding over to the east side Sekiwake slot, and so this should be somewhat of a victory lap for both yotsu-zumo practitioners. Asanoyama has won all 3 meetings to date, but there’s not a ton on the line here.

Daieisho (6-8) vs Hiradoumi (8-6): This should be a spirited encounter. Daieisho has beaten Hiradoumi on both prior matchups, and Daieisho needs a win to limit his demotion to Komusubi. Hiradoumi has done well to get kachi-koshi, and is more or less just fighting for pride. That said, I still expect a fiery tachiai and hopefully the good Daieisho will show up. He has a reason to want it more, and if he can keep Hiradoumi from getting his arms inside or a belt grip, he should win.

Onosato (11-3) vs Hoshoryu (10-4): What a horrible matchup to come at this stage of the day, but this really should be the musubi-no-ichiban. Onosato will know what he needs to do before he emerges down the hanamichi, which could change the circumstances in any number of ways. Hoshoryu seemed gutted to have been bounced from the yusho race on Day 14 by Kotonowaka, he’d have felt like he had a chance to win this yusho especially after Takerufuji’s injury. I do not think he will go easy on Onosato in any case, he will view him as a potential future rival that he will want to put in his place. Onosato will likely try and drive Hoshoryu straight back from the tachiai, but Hoshoryu has been giving opponents that position all basho long in order to get the kind of hand placement that can lead to a twisting throw at the edge. It’s a fascinating encounter, because Onosato could well punch a san’yaku ticket with 12 wins depending on other results. He could also land himself in a winnable yusho playoff against a crocked opponent. Hoshoryu won their only prior meeting. This yusho will be won by a future star, the question is, if it’s in play, can Onosato spring a major upset to make himself that star?

Kirishima (4-10) vs Kotonowaka (10-4): I get that there’s a sequence to uphold, but it’s a bit of a travesty to make this the final match over its predecessor. Kirishima has been a mess, Kotonowaka has done exactly what’s expected. This should be his final bout before taking his grandfather’s Kotozakura shikona, and he’ll probably mark it with a win over an opponent who needs to probably sort out his physicals and mentals before a critical basho in Tokyo.

If there’s a playoff, it will be Takerufuji against Onosato. In the circumstances of Takerufuji’s injury, Onosato would be favourite, but let’s hope great sumo is the winner no matter what!

Well, whoever was doing previews yesterday had a bit of a ‘mare, that’s for sure. Oh, wait, it was me.

Back when we had three consistently good Yokozuna and a historically very good Ozeki, Tachiai used to talk about the kadoban twins (normally Goeido and Kotoshogiku, but sometimes Terunofuji in his first Ozeki stint was in there) who always seemed to be kadoban or in danger of being kadoban. I suppose that one good thing about this half-Yokozuna era we find ourselves in now is that we’re limited to one under-performing Ozeki per basho.

Amazingly though, after the upset-laden start to this tournament, we have three Ozeki at 6-2 and who will all fancy their chances of getting back on top of the leaderboard. They have yet to face the rank-and-filers who lead the title challenge, and there may be some twists and turns yet to come in this second week. Still, wouldn’t it be nice if someone could make us dream of a beautiful new white rope?

Maybe that person exists, maybe they’re not even in san’yaku yet.

Day 9 Matches

Myogiryu (3-5) vs Tomokaze (4-4): Old friend Tomokaze is today’s visitor. He’s far removed now from the days when he stormed to the top of the rank and file. Honestly, after what he’s been through with injuries, he’s done remarkably well to get back to where he has, fighting to re-establish himself in the top division. This match, while again a bit early to be a proper exchange bout, is a big opportunity to pull Myogiryu down and pull himself back into the top division. We should be seeing an oshi-zumo bout, if someone’s got the belt then that’s bad news for Tomokaze.

Ryuden (4-4) vs Endo (2-6): What Endo has in his favour here is a massive 7-2 record against Ryuden. Ryuden has flagged a bit over the last few days, Endo has flagged a bit over the last few basho. I think this should actually be a good match, and one that Endo absolutely must win as demotion is nearing.

Churanoumi (4-4) vs Sadanoumi (6-2): Maybe I went a day early on my prediction of Sadanoumi getting upset, as Churanoumi has beaten him all five times they’ve met, and by five different techniques as well. Churanoumi has mostly been solid and dependable in this basho. A win for Sadanoumi, meanwhile, would leave him with a real chance of both a big promotion up the banzuke for May and also some challenging matches in this second week.

Ichiyamamoto (4-4) vs Daiamami (4-4): Well, Daiamami’s unlikely revival continues and his defeat of Shodai was his most impressive yet in the run of four straight victories. This match for me is all about Ichiyamamoto’s ability to keep his balance and ring sense. Ichiyamamoto’s Abi-lite style and mobility means it will be harder for Daiamami to use his big body to box him out, and it’s a match where I can see both guys going for a slap down attempt as their main strategy. Ichiyamamoto has a fairly significant 5-1 advantage in the head-to-head.

Roga (4-4) vs Mitakeumi (6-2): Mitakeumi, who has won their only prior meeting, continues to confound by winning matches without looking all that good. Imagine if he ever got his mojo back! Roga has blown hot and cold and looks like he may be flagging a bit. This will be a good encounter to tell us whether Mitakeumi has rediscovered his killer instinct (something his opponent has been criticised on these pages for lacking), and if I were Mitakeumi, I’d be looking to keep the Russian off the belt.

Kitanowaka (1-7) vs Kotoshoho (3-5): This has been a basho to forget for both of these guys. Someone had to henka Onosho, but there’s not a ton of dignity in it. That tells you where Kotoshoho is at. He’s the favourite here only by virtue of how poor Kitanowaka has been. Assuming they take each other head on, this could be one of those cartoon brawls with all kinds of limbs flying everywhere. That being said, I’d smile if Kitanowaka tried a henka.

Nishikifuji (5-3) vs Takayasu (5-3): Nishikifuji continues to go max-effort, but the more curious thing will be the approach of Takayasu. The veteran will feel he let a win slip out of his hands on nakabi and should have found himself in the 6-2 peloton. These guys have split their four prior matches evenly. I would like to see Takayasu push for double digits, he looks like he still has it in him.

Onosho (5-3) vs Shonannoumi (6-2): Shonannoumi’s wonderful basho continued with a thorough dismantling of hapless Kitanowaka, but this should be another kettle of fish. Onosho will feel let down by falling for the trickery yesterday, as seems to happen to him at least once every basho. I do wonder if the physically imposing Shonnanoumi will look for a slap down attempt in this match. Onosho has looked very good on the whole in this basho (and the prior tournament), but he doesn’t have the benefit of much experience against his opponent: they have split their prior matches evenly, one apiece.

Kinbozan (2-4-2) vs Hokutofuji (1-7): It’s a telling stat about Hokutofuji’s basho that someone like Kinbozan can disappear for half a week, return, and still have a better record than him. Kinbozan returned looking fitter than he was at the start of the basho, although I do also think this match might require more energy from him than yesterday’s victim. Hokutofuji has won both prior meetings, and will look to stave off make-koshi here in what will surely be an oshi-battle.

Shodai (4-4) vs Gonoyama (5-3): These guys have faced each other twice and each come out victorious on one occasion. Shodai continues to disappoint, and I actually wonder at what stage he’s going to be called into action against the Endo’s and Myogiryu’s of the world fighting demotion. Gonoyama has mostly looked good in this basho. I’d like to see Shodai sort himself out but truthfully I’d like to see a win for the hometown kid more, so I’ll go for Gonoyama here.

Tamawashi (2-6) vs Hiradoumi (4-4): Tamawashi took a very nasty spill yesterday and was limping after the match, so the main thing is whether he’s OK. I think, in those circumstances, he’s probably not going to want to see someone who is blazing out of the traps. The onus is really on Hiradoumi to attack here and take advantage of the veteran’s potential unsteady footing.

Oho (3-5) vs Takanosho (3-5): These guys should both feel relatively happy with their tours through the san’yaku, although Takanosho in particular will feel like he let a real scalp slip away yesterday against the Ozeki, even though his approach was again somewhat predictable and played to the Ozeki’s strengths. I wonder how much, if at all, he will carry that mentally forward against a lesser opponent. Takanosho will want both arms in and Oho will want both arms out, so this is one of those classic “whoever executes their brand of sumo, wins” matches. Oho’s beaten Takanosho twice in three prior matchups.

Atamifuji (4-4) vs Meisei (3-5): Surprisingly, here’s a first time meeting of two guys hoping to jostle their way into san’yaku in the second week. Meisei’s win yesterday was huge for his chances of just getting back to a respectable scoreline. Atamifuji has had a tough couple days, but when you are ranked at this level, these are the matches you absolutely have to win if you want to push on to the next level. Can he bounce back?

Ura (3-5) vs Asanoyama (4-4): The push for Nishikigi’s san’yaku slot is incredibly muddy, and we have the Maegashira 3s going at it, then the 2s and here we have the Maegashira 1s matching up. As you can see, none of them have more than 4 or fewer than 3 wins, and it’s technically possible for us to see five guys at 4-5 and one guy at 3-6. That is probably the outcome preferred by Onosato. As for this match, again it seems fairly incredible that these rikishi have met only once, with Asanoyama coming out on top. He still has Abi and potentially Wakamotoharu to face, so will view this as a critical match to win if he wants to take pole position for promotion. Unless Ura views his pushing attack as strong enough (I don’t think it will be), he will need the full bag of tricks here. I would make Asanoyama the favourite, just about.

Abi (6-2) vs Takerufuji (8-0): The best part of the second week is when we start to get the matches with real yusho implications, and the rikishi punching above their weight start to get called up to the big time. In today’s case, we’ve got two guys pulled way up. These are dizzying heights for Takerufuji and I think this is where the party is going to end. Abi was not messing around yesterday in confidently despatching Ura. This is the point in the previous basho where the wheels came off for Onosato, and the only way it gets easier from here for Takerufuji is if he drops out of contention. I’m a little surprised that both of the starlets are pulled up to face san’yaku before facing each other, but that may be an indication of the schedulers belief that they could still be in contention come the final weekend. In any case, a 9th straight win for Takerufuji would be a massive, monster upset.

Onosato (7-1) vs Wakamotoharu (5-3): This probably will not have been a name that Wakamotoharu wanted to see come out of the hat at this stage, given that he still has guys like Asanoyama to deal with and his kachi-koshi status is not settled. It’s a major test of Onosato’s current level. Clearly he is too good for the rank and filers (except Onosho), but he dropped three out of three against san’yaku opponents in January, and all eyes will be looking to see if he can do a job here.

Daieisho (4-4) vs Kotonowaka (6-2): The job for Kotonowaka in this debut Ozeki basho is to get across the line, succeed to his new name, and then he can establish his credentials at the level later. He has done pretty well to this point, keeping himself far out of trouble. Daieisho has looked more vulnerable in this basho than usual, so the Ozeki might feel he’s got a pretty good shot of taking a step closer to kachi-koshi. Kotonowaka leads this series 8-4 and must be considered favourite here, although Daieisho is always dangerous if he is allowed space to power up his thrusting attack. What makes Kotonowaka so good though, is that he normally doesn’t allow it.

Takakeisho (6-2) vs Tobizaru (5-3): Remarkably, here’s another Ozeki that has a losing record against Tobizaru. The Flying Monkey is having another great basho and I think he’s a good bet for another upset here, having beaten Takakeisho 6 times from 11 matchups, and at one point five times consecutively. Tobizaru certainly will lose the odd match where he is just overpowered by a stronger opponent, but he is looking like he refuses to be beaten, and heart counts for a lot. Takakeisho has a lot going for him, but mobility is not one of those things right now.

Midorifuji (3-5) vs Hoshoryu (6-2): Once upon a time, Hoshoryu had issues dealing with Midorifuji, but he’s beaten him five times in a row. The Ozeki has lived dangerously on a few occasions this basho, but he’s been good enough to get the job done. When I look at the matches where Midorifuji has fared the worst, it’s been against big bulky guys like Tsurugisho, Onosato, Kinbozan. He’s been mostly competitive the rest of the time. I think Midorifuji will give Hoshoryu a run for his money especially if he can try to deploy a first katasukashi of the basho, but the Ozeki isn’t really the kind of opponent who finds himself in positions to be vulnerable to that and is still the tip to win.

Kirishima (2-6) vs Nishikigi (1-7): After yesterday’s musubi-no-ichiban which was worthy of the name, we get this clunker. Nishikigi has dropped seven in a row without looking like he might win, and one more loss will rubber stamp his demotion from san’yaku. This is, however, his final san’yaku opponent, so it does get better from here. Kirishima has beaten him 3 times in 4 previous attempts (including a pair of humiliating okuri-kimarite), and looked a bit more up for his latest matches, although certainly had a very timid tachiai against Tobizaru. It’s no good saying “Kirishima must win this” anymore because he’s clearly on his way to kadoban status. With some reluctance, I’ll tip the Ozeki here to get the job done and give himself a fighting chance of playing spoiler this week.