Tachiai Interviews Kintamayama, Part 4: “If Hakuho goes, we have no responsible adult.”

Moti Dichne (Kintamayama) and Takanohana
Kintamayama with Takanohana outside of Futagoyama-beya. Photo courtesy of Moti Dichne.

Welcome to Part 4 of Tachiai’s conversation with Moti Dichne, aka Kintamayama. Moti is well known in the online sumo community for his tireless coverage of all things sumo through his newsletter, his presence on SumoForum, and of course, his exhaustive YouTube channel.

Click here for Part 1, here for Part 2, and here for Part 3 of our conversation, if you are catching up. The interview took place during this year’s Natsu basho, and as such predates some current sumo events (such as the retirement of Aminishiki) and has been edited only for clarity and length. This segment touches on the state of some current rikishi and the ongoing transition in the sport.

Tachiai: A lot of people are very interested in debating Takakeisho’s ceiling. What are your thoughts on Takakeisho? What can he be? He’s got one trick, but it’s a weird trick.

Moti Dichne (Kintamayama): Listen, Chiyotaikai was not much better. He had the windmill thing, and it worked for him for 60 bashos! In the meantime, Takakeisho is looking really good, you can’t argue with that. [edited to add: this interview took place before Takakeisho’s injury caused him to at least temporarily lose his ozeki status]

I personally am a belt person, but [yotsu-zumo rikishi] are becoming like dinosaurs. Look at Makuuchi… out of 42, maybe 32 are slappers! You’ve got Tochinoshin, and Hakuho and maybe 3 more [who are yotsu-zumo rikishi]. But Asanoyama was down where all his opponents are slappers and he’s had a difficult time getting the belt.

I [now] think Takakeisho is the real deal for sure, and I didn’t think so. I was happy they didn’t promote him when they didn’t promote him [the first time he met the informal qualification]. I said, “let’s wait a minute and see how he does mentally.”

Kisenosato would be devastated [in that situation], and it would take him 3 bashos to get over it. Takakeisho got over it very quickly. He’s a cool cucumber. He has a mission, and everyone forgets that he’s a young guy.

Personally, Onosho was the guy that I was rooting for. He started off well, but I hope that his whole setback lately comes from an injury and not from that being how good he is. I’m looking for a reason, because he came up and was killing everybody. Even Takakeisho. Even Hakuho [couldn’t deal with him].

That’s an interesting point. One thing that we’ve been talking about the last several years is that sumo is in a transitionary phase.

Oh, yeah.

But I think that when people hear that, what they expect to see is the Kisenosatos of the world retire – and he did, as did Harumafuji, but Harumafuji retired in a freak situation. It wasn’t like, “we’re in a transitionary period, and all the top guys are going,” what we’re actually seeing is the Takekazes of the world and the guys who are the long serving veterans who are starting to work their way out, but I think it’s happening slower than people really expect. Is it because these veterans of that last period… Takekaze, Yoshikaze, Kotoshogiku, Aminishiki – are they that good that they’re able to hang around or is it because this new generation – Onosho for example – hasn’t been good enough to be able to push on?

A little of both. It’s very difficult to know. There’s one thing that foreign fans will never understand: It’s not yaocho when the young guys have respect. When they were five years old, they used to watch [the older guys] on TV. That has to factor in somewhere, on the dohyo, that “I don’t want to hurt the old guy. I don’t want to be the one who caused the old guy to retire.”

I’m not saying that they’re giving them the wins, but I think they are being extra careful. Nobody will tell you that, but I am pretty sure. And I can tell by the bouts, I can see, the younger the guys are more reluctant to go all-out against Aminishiki, against Toyonoshima. That’s my feeling. Toyonoshima a bit less because when you look at him, you don’t see him as that old. Aminishiki on the other hand, you see an old guy. [He’s] like an oyakata having fun.

The Japanese are very rooted in kohai and sempai. It has power when you were 10 years old and you adored [a rikishi], and suddenly you’re fighting him and you’re saying somewhere, “I don’t want to kill this guy, I don’t want to hurt him.”

There’s a totally different thing happening right now. I think for the first time, since I don’t know when… if Hakuho goes, we have no responsible adult. There’s no name. The minute Hakuho goes, we’re doomed. Kakuryu and Mitakeumi?

Always there’s a void. Takanohana came after Chiyonofuji. The Americans came. There were never 4… 5… 7… 8… 10 bashos like that, and if Hakuho goes…

Dominance is good and bad but it’s good for knowing there’s a responsible adult.

It’s also a society that’s dominated by the concept of eras. We’re talking right now at a time when the change to the Reiwa era has just happened. It’s an appropriate time for this discussion. You can bank on Hakuho, even if he’s kyujo 2 times a year, to get up to 50 to 60 wins a year. I think an issue if he leaves is that usually in that vacuum, someone will go, “ok, I’m going to take those 60 wins.” But right now, we’re seeing six guys taking ten of those wins apiece over the course of the year.

That’s what I’m saying! It’s not going to happen. In the NBA, you have your LeBrons and your Michael Jordans. In baseball you have [dominant] guys. Here, suddenly, there’s nobody. Because Kakuryu does anything but show leadership, you don’t know what’s going to happen with him. He has no charisma. 

Do you think the next Hakuho is in the sport now?

I don’t think there’s going to be a “next Hakuho” for quite a while. I’m not sure about Naya either. I have no idea. None from whoever’s in Makuuchi today. Maybe Takakeisho, but I doubt it if he’s going to be one dimensional. Somewhere along the line, but I don’t see anyone right now. I thought Goeido at some point, but he’s getting old. I think he’s going to win another yusho. I have a feeling that this is his basho [Natsu 2019], but we’ll see.

As we speak, Goeido is on his longest run of staying out of kadoban that he’s ever been on in his entire Ozeki career. [edited to add: he’s since gone kadoban again]

See, this is what we’re talking about: an Ozeki who’s 30 years old and been kadoban every 2-3 [basho]. Guys like Hakuho breeze through Ozeki, [not] stuck in Ozeki for 30 bashos. They just walked over Ozeki, except for Musashimaru, who stayed on for a long time.

I made a poll, a hundred years ago on the mailing list: “Who thinks Musashimaru will become Yokozuna?” Out of about 100 responses, three people. Because there was no way. He seemed to be a happy go lucky guy, content with a 9-6. 10-5.

We all were laughing, saying “he’s going to have to learn the dohyo-iri, just for that he won’t be come Yokozuna!” And then suddenly out of nowhere, he made it in. Everyone was healthy, it wasn’t like it was something that he picked up off the floor. And he was a great Yokozuna.

And Musashimaru was in an era where it was difficult to do that, with Takanohana still being in the sport. Whoever does it next may have a free run at it. 

That’s what we’re saying, exactly! It’s going to be easy! That’s why I have a feeling that even though he’s one dimensional, maybe Takakeisho will be able to do it. He just needs two [consecutive] yushos! And in this atmosphere at this moment, who knows. 

It could happen. I think the biggest issue with the current crop is consistency.

Listen, not only could it happen, it has to happen, because there’s going to be a void. 

There was the period in the early 90s before Akebono, where there was nobody for about a year. There were 4 Yokozuna, and then Asahifuji and Hokutoumi retired, having mostly been kyujo just before they retired. I think we may see that again, where there were 4, and then none. 

I missed Chiyonofuji and all of that era! The internet brought me back to sumo. Between ’67 and ’90, that’s 23 years I was totally out of sumo. There was no other way [to see sumo]. I had to go back and study everything and see what happened, for my own information and my own curiosity. 

It’s a weird parallel because you had this period where you had Onokuni, Hokutoumi…

Onokuni was a lousy Yokozuna also! He should keep on making cakes. He’s a baker!

They all kind of flattered to deceive a little bit, and it’s kind of like the current period, where you had Kisenosato with two yusho, injuries, and he’s out… and maybe the end of Hakuho’s career is similar to the end of Chiyonofuji’s career. Maybe there will be a year break with no Yokozuna because nobody can win two in a row, or the equivalent?

I think it’s going to be interesting. Because the fans now, for the first time, are coming in – not for the Yokozuna. I don’t remember that happening since I got interested in sumo.

It was always the Yokozuna, Asashoryu, these guys [who attracted fans]. Any time they were injured, the attendance went down. In those days, the basho wasn’t sold out in advance.

You look around the arena and see what things people hold up and who they are cheering for, and while you do get a lot of fans for Ozeki Tochinoshin now, a lot of people love Mitakeumi, Endo, Enho…

They’re Japanese! Endo, always! Of course it also depends which tournament it is, the local people always [get support]. Mitakeumi is very well liked, and I don’t understand why! Maybe he’s a nice guy. But his sumo…

He has consistency problems.

And he has training problems, which is worse. He trains [poorly], then he loses and everyone is on his case. He’s one of those guys that he comes on during the basho. 

He’s kind of the opposite of Goeido, who trains very hard, but then falters during the basho.

Yeah, exactly. The oyakata are already making jokes about Mitakeumi, that he loses all the time in training, and they’re saying he’s not going all out and that’s why he’ll never amount to anything. That used to be the case with Robocop (Takamisakari). He would never win a single bout in keiko! It was like he was scared. During the basho he had no choice, but in training he used to be scared! 

He was a character that was great for the sport.

Oh, for sure! A character you need. The way they cut Kotoyuki down… what the hell do you care?! Now, Kotoyuki has this new thing going, his helicopter move [before the tachiai]. Nobody cares. Nobody notices, nobody gives a shit, nobody laughs or claps. In his prime, everybody was waiting just for that! Now, you have the Takayasu “Gorilla.” The crowd goes crazy [for that].

I think Kotoshogiku needs to bring his back bend move back. He stopped when he fell out of san’yaku. Do you think if he goes back to san’yaku he’ll bring it back? 

He stopped his back bend and I didn’t even notice! I read somewhere that someone told him it’s not good for his back. Which sounds like total nonsense. Maybe it’s a san’yaku thing, like the change of names where when they drop out of san’yaku and go back to their real name.

Maybe he feels he’s not a top level guy anymore so he hasn’t earned the right to make a big show?

K: Well, knowing Kotoshogiku, that’s very possible.

The rumour on the street is that he wants to renew his rivalry with Toyonoshima. Do you think that’s ever going to happen?

Toyonoshima looks good. He looks like he has a lot of years in him, in contract to Aminishiki who doesn’t [edited to add: and has since retired]. But Aminishiki has been looking that way for the last five years… so what do I know! I’m telling you the factor is the guys are afraid to injure him and they’re not going all out.

Find out more from Kintamayama and subscribe to his mailing list at dichne.com, and keep an eye out for the final part of our conversation, which will run soon on Tachiai.

Aminishiki injured, goes kyujo

Uncle Sumo’s bout with Ryuko today ended with injury. His knee seems to have collapsed, and he limped his way from the dohyo and got wheeled away from the hana-michi.

Once he finished changing, he left the venue for a hospital, where he underwent checkups, and got back to Isegahama beya’s lodgings on crutches.

Isegahama oyakata announced that Aminishiki will be absent as of day 3, which will give Arawashi a freebie.

However, he says that if the inflammation recedes and the pain goes away, Aminishiki intends to show up again. “He did not tear a ligament or anything, and the man himself wishes to attend if he can”, he said.

If Aminishiki does not return to action, he will be ranked at Makushita for certain next basho, and many fans doubt that he will then choose to fight his way back through the heaven/hell border that is the top of Makushita. Instead, he is more likely to retire and make use of his vacant kabu (right to an elder name).

We wish Aminishiki good health and for his career to continue safely and fruitfully down the path he chooses.

Heya Power Rankings: Hatsu-Haru 19

Tamawashi Yusho Parade
Riding on the back of glory

Hello and welcome to the latest edition of the Tachiai Heya Power Rankings! The exciting news is that we’re rethinking the way that we do this ranking system. Andy has really pushed things forward in terms of data vizualisation on the site in recent weeks and we are thinking about how we can apply those features to give more detailed information not only about stables but about their performance.

Since we started the ranking system, we’ve been looking primarily at – and scoring – the stables based on performance by sekitori (those rikishi competing in the top two, salaried, ranks). But I think perhaps there are ways we can expand this, especially if we’re using bigger data sets. What do you think, Tachiai readers of this feature? Should we expand beyond the top two divisions? We’ve done this feature for two years now, so it’s right that we should continually try to make it better.

That’s a whole lot of talking without a whole lot of chart action. Here’s the chart following Hatsu 2019 and going into the Haru basho:

Heya Power Rankings - Post-Hatsu 2019

This is the first chart that doesn’t reference Takanohana-beya in any capacity since we started. Here’s the breakdown in the ever popular Billboard-style Top 20 format:

  1. (+17) Kataonami. 95 points (+80)
  2. (+-) Tagonoura. 70 points (-25)
  3. (-2) Chiganoura. 63 points (-45)
  4. (+-) Sakaigawa. 60 points (+7)
  5. (+1) Miyagino. 49 points (+10)
  6. (-1) Oitekaze. 46 points (+3)
  7. (-4) Kasugano. 45 points (-15)
  8. (+-) Izutsu. 35 points (+5)
  9. (+-) Kokonoe. 31 points (+4)
  10. (**) Kise. 28 points (+17)
  11. (-4) Oguruma. 25 points (-10)
  12. (+2) Dewanoumi. 25 points (+5)
  13. (+3) Hakkaku. 25 points (+5)
  14. (-4) Tokitsukaze. 20 points (-7)
  15. (-3) Isenoumi. 20 points (-3)
  16. (+3) Isegahama. 20 points (+5)
  17. (-6) Takadagawa. 18 points (-5)
  18. (+2) Tomozuna. 18 points (+5)
  19. (-6) Sadogatake. 15 points (-8)
  20. (-3) Onomatsu. 13 points (-7)

(legend: ** = new entry, +- = no movement, tiebreaker 1: higher position in the previous chart, tiebreaker 2: highest ranked rikishi on the banzuke)

Analysis

The one-sekitori stables are subject to more profound swings owing to the consistency of their single salaried rikishi. Before the promotion of the Onami brothers, Arashio-beya was a stable that would bounce all over the rankings owing to Sokokurai’s wildly variant top division performances. Kataonami, meanwhile, has always been a typically consistent stable as Tamawashi has put up consistently good-not-great records around the lower-san’yaku and topmost Maegashira ranks. That obviously all changed with his first yusho, which ultimately vaults the stable for the first time to the top of our charts. It’s an almost completely dormant stable but for the culinarily-talented Mongolian pusher-thruster, strangely having produced about as many oyakata as active rikishi.

Chiganoura-beya is relieved of top spot, but holds 3rd position on the back of Takakeisho‘s jun-yusho, as well as the number of rikishi still with the stable following the zero-scoring retirement of Takanoiwa. Takanofuji‘s promotion to Juryo next time out will make up the numbers, and should Takakeisho complete his Ozeki push, the stable will remain a dominant force among our rankings (as currently composed).

One Ozeki-led stable which may be set for a tumble from its usual place around the summit will be Tagonoura-beya. Our model gives credit for banzuke placement and only gives partial docked points for going kyujo mid-tourney, so Kisenosato‘s retirement will be reflected in the next version of the rankings when the stable is no longer fielding a Yokozuna. That said, Takayasu has done his level-best to consistently grab Kisenosato’s old jun-yusho “bridesmaid” mantle. With little hope of sekitori reinforcements at the stable in the near term, Tagonoura likely becomes a Top 5 or 7 rather than Top 3 heya by our figures from here on out.

Let’s have a shout for Kise-beya, which, owing to Shimanoumi‘s Juryo yusho finds itself back up in mid-table. It’s long been a perplexing stable, as they’ve fielded by the largest number of sekitori in the history of this rankings rundown (ten), yet never seem to have any rikishi capable of mounting a prolonged run in the points-grabbing realms of makuuchi, especially since the downfall of Ura. Still, the stable – as ever – has a number of rikishi not only in Juryo (including the bizarrely resurgent Gagamaru) but also in the makushita joi. While Shimanoumi will be the best placed of the six Kise-sekitori to make the move to Makuuchi owing to his position at J1, the stable has no fewer than sixteen makushita rikishi this time out (including the Sandanme-bound Ura), including six ranked Ms10 or higher. All rikishi obviously come with different ability levels and pedigrees, but if the stable can’t see their Juryo rikishi up into Makuuchi and their Makushita class further up the promotion chain this year, it would be awfully perplexing.

Will brighter days be ahead for Isegahama-beya, which now starts to move back up the listings in a meaningful way? It’s tough to say. Old man Aminishiki has taken a nasty fall down the banzuke and it’s yet to be seen whether he can – against all odds again – get up. At Juryo 11 it would be easy to predict that like many before him, a significant make-koshi would send him into the barber’s chair. However, Terutsuyoshi will look to consolidate a place in Makuuchi this basho, and with Takarafuji having grabbed his first kachi-koshi in yonks, and reinforcements on the way from Makushita soon, the stable may yet return to its powerhouse days as a top 10 (or better) heya by our reckoning soon.

One thing that made this rundown a bit more unique is that usually we see quite a bit of turnover, especially between places 7-20, but this time out, the chart stayed – with the notable exception of Tamawashi’s Kataonami-beya – remarkably stable. This echoed my initial gut feeling that there weren’t too many shocks in the new banzuke. As for the next rundown, should Juryo newcomer Kiribayama stay on the dohyo for 15 days, then Michinoku-beya will score their first ever points in our tally. But, as stated above, we’ll be having a look at how to revamp and improve the rankings after the Haru basho.