With three days to go, here’s where things stand. For the purposes of this discussion, I will leave out the COVID-kyujo rikishi until the NSK gives us more of an idea of how they’ll handle that mess.
Yusho Race
We have two leaders, Yokozuna Terunofuji and M2 Ichinojo at 10-2, followed by Ozeki Takakeisho (9-3) and a motley crew of five rikishi (from Ozeki Shodai to M17 Nishikifuji) with 8 wins. Mathematically, a large group with 7-5 records is still in it, but realistically it should come down to the top 3. Tomorrow’s key bouts:
- Terunofuji vs. Wakatakakage
- Takakeisho vs. Shodai
- Ichinojo vs. Nishikigi
Ozeki
O1e Takakeisho (9-3) is kachi-koshi, as is O2w Shodai (8-4) who has cleared kadoban. O1w Mitakeumi’s fate is unknown.
Lower San’yaku
S1e Wakatakakage (7-5) will stay in the named ranks, but still needs a win to stay Sekiwake, and three to keep any Ozeki conversation going. S1w Daieisho (6-6) needs a win to stay in the named ranks and two to hold rank. K1e Hoshoryu (7-5) needs one more win to stay in san’yaku and possibly move higher should one of the Sekiwake falter. K1w Abi (6-6) needs to win 2 of 3 to hold rank. The obvious promotion candidate, should a slot open, is M2w Ichinojo (10-2).
Juryo Danger
The record of M16w Daiamami (2-8-2 wins) is now beyond salvaging, and he will be making an immediate return to the second division. M17w Chiyomaru (4-8) is in only slightly better shape, and will be joining Daiamami unless he wins out and gets some remarkable banzuke luck. Hapless newlywed M9e Shimanoumi (1-11) needs 3 more wins for safety; everyone else is probably okay, especially since Juryo leader J1e Ryuden (10-2) is still the only one with a strong promotion case, and anyone hoping to join him now needs to win out.
Makushita Danger
Absent J10w Ishiura will be dropping to the third division. Among those still participating, those most likely to join him are J11e Kaisei (3-9) and J12w Yago (4-8), who need to win out to be safe. J11w Tochimaru (4-8) is looking for two more wins. Tomorrow, Yago will face Ms1e Takakento (3-3) in the first of what should be a series of exchange bouts over the final days between rikishi looking to switch places across the “heaven/hell” boundary.
My only question-mark is with Shimanoumi. I’m not convinced he needs three wins. I think he may be safe based on the lack of promotion candidates from Juryo.
3 more wins should guarantee safety. He could survive with 2 more. It would be hard to keep him at 2-13, and impossible at 1-14.
But there might not be a third promotion candidate.
They’ll push someone up (the highest kk) if his record is bad enough. They’ve promoted 8-7 J5 and 9-6 J6 before e.g. here: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201601#J Or even an 8-7 J11 when they really needed to: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201007#J
There is an Argument for Kaisei to not be dropped down if he fights the rest of the days. With so many Rikishi out, the ranking is going to be up in arms, an Argument can be made that you cannot treat those that fought all 15 days worse then those that pulled out. Would it work? I dunno, but it can be made.
Yeah, it’s an unprecedented situation. I hope those who had to pull out due to entire heya being withdrawn after a positive test will be treated based on the abbreviated record on the dohyo (like, Oshoma was 5-3 in the ring, so treat it as somewhere between 8-7 and 9-6), but who knows what they’ll actually do.