The NSK may have cancelled the Natsu basho, but never fear—you do not have to wait until July (or later) for some sumo content. Our friends at Grand Sumo Breakdown will be simulating the tournament based on the recently released banzuke. We here at Tachiai will be joining them in covering the mock basho much like we would the real thing. While we can’t bring you actual bouts, we can write previews, highlights, storyline posts, etc. At the end of the tournament, I will even create a projection for a banzuke based on the mock results. In Bruce’s inimitable words, “It will be odd, it could be cheesy, but I think the readership will love it.” While our efforts cannot make up for the absence of real ozumo, we hope that they will scratch the sumo itch at least a little, and bring some much-needed levity to the sumo fandom community.
The mock Natsu basho kicks off in two weeks, on May 24, just like the real thing was slated to before the cancellation. Let us know any thoughts and suggestions you may have in the comments, and stay tuned for more details.
We’re saved! From the depths of despair, a light shines!
Here was my idea: look at the last six meetings between the wrestlers and then throw a dice.
For example: Abi has won 4 of his last 6 against Ryuden, so if the dice comes up 1, 2, 3 or 4 Abi wins; if it’s 5 or 6 Ryuden wins. You could sort of scale it down if they had met less than 6 times or use percentages and a random number generator.
As for what would happen if the wrestlers had never met or if one guy had a 100% record against his opponent… well… that was “in development”,
You also have to multiply the random number generated from the distribution based on prior record with another random number that indicates probability of “injury”. We all know injury can significantly change the outcome of a match regardless of prior record. The “injury” has to be modeled so that a rikishi could get worse over the duration of the basho leading to possible kyujo.
Excellent! All is not lost. Should be great fun. Thank you to all. Yay!!!👏