We have less than a week left before the Kyushu basho, and I’m starting to get excited! I’m also impatient, and the Day 1 torikumi won’t be posted for a few days yet, so I figured I’d try to forecast it based on past patterns. Specifically, I looked at the Day 1 torikumi from Haru, which had all four Yokozuna start the tournament, and also had 3 Sekiwake, and assumed the same ranks would be matched up at Kyushu. One could use the same approach to look at the first few days, but let’s get pumped for the tournament by looking at likely Day 1 bouts!
| Y1e Harumafuji | K1w Onosho |
| K1e Kotoshogiku | Y1w Hakuho |
| Y2e Kisenosato | S2e Terunofuji |
| M1e Tamawashi | Y2w Kakuryu |
| O1e Goeido | M1w Takakeisho |
| M2e Chiyotairyu | O1w Takayasu |
| S1e Mitakeumi | M2w Tochiozan |
| M3e Shohozan | S1w Yoshikaze |
| M4e Chiyonokuni | M3w Hokutofuji |
From there, simply fill in alternating East-West maegashira rikishi in order.
A few bouts that jump out at me: we’ll find out a lot about the health and fitness of both Kisenosato and Terunofuji if those two match up on Day 1. Chiyotairyu will be a big test of Takayasu’s recovery. In grudge matches, Onosho got his first kinboshi at Aki courtesy of Harumafuji during Onosho’s red-hot 5-0 start and Harumafuji’s run of 3 straight losses, while Goeido’s loss to Takakeisho on Day 13 at Aki set up his ultimate loss of the basho on Senshuraku. Hakuho and Kotoshogiku have faced each other 57 times, with Hakuho winning 52! And Shohozan–Yoshikaze is always a war.
I’d give Onosho-Harumafuji a 50:50, only just now Moti said that he believes Onosho will not be very good this basho, as he has been practicing at a low level. So maybe my favorite Yokozuna will have a W on his first day.
Kotoshogiku is all pumped up and wants to be Ozeki again. If he manages to upset Hakuho… but I don’t think that’s very likely.
Kisenosato vs. Terunofuji: I think it’s the kaiju who’s going to be smashed in this paralympic bout.
Harumafuji also isn’t 100%. The Aki basho took a lot out of him. He’s been keeping to a very light practice schedule too.
That’s why I gave it 50:50. If he was 100%, no mere Komusubi would be a match for him. But at his current state, I’m half expecting intai again. Unless he goes kyujo.
I saw that. Moti isn’t always right, but it would be a real shame if Onosho get overconfident and slacked off on his training his first time in San’yaku! I don’t see Giku averaging double-digits, much less 11 wins, for 3 tournaments, if the upper ranks are anywhere close to full strength…
MOUTH WATERING
I know all of these probably aren’t going to happen …. BUT IF THEY DO!!!! The first day will be epic. There is so much good stuff in there right from the top on down
Even Chiyotairyu v Takayasu – someone is gonna get blasted right out of the gate. Not Takayasu’s style to henka but this will be some test of his strength early on.
Tamawashi has been struggling the past couple basho, but a well executed signature throat attack on Kakuryu would make things interesting….
Hey, typo in the list: Kakaryu….
We here with the Mrs ‘sitting on needles’ waiting for the first day. ;-) 3rd
Thanks, fixed.
I guess you’ll have to redo this, now that Kakuryu is kyujo again. :-(
I never did redo it, but it turned out pretty close anyway :)