This post is the follow-up to Nagoya banzuke crystal ball part 1.
Lower maegashira
M5 | Chiyoshoma | Tochiozan |
M6 | Ichinojo | Onosho |
M7 | Daieisho | Aoiyama |
M8 | Takanoiwa | Ishiura |
M9 | Tokushoryu | Chiyotairyu |
M10 | Okinoumi | Shohozan |
M11 | Daishomaru | Chiyonokuni |
M12 | Arawashi | Takarafuji |
M13 | Takekaze | Sokokurai |
M14 | Sadanoumi (J) | Chiyomaru (J) |
M15 | Nishikigi (J) | Kotoyuki |
M16 | Kaisei/Gagamaru (J)? |
Make-koshi at Natsu in red; kachi-koshi in green; (J) = promotion from Juryo.
That looks like a lot of red. So I counted, and 14 of the rikishi in this part of the banzuke had losing records at Natsu. I guess that’s why they’re here. Only 6 of the wrestlers here who were in Makuuchi at Natsu had winning records, most notably Onosho, who jumps all the way from M14 to M6. It’s probably to Onosho’s benefit that he takes a big jump up the banzuke but gets more experience before having to face the highest ranks. Conversely, Chiyonokuni tumbles all the way from M1 to M11 (see “meat grinder, the” in the previous post; everyone but Endo finds themselves here: Chiyoshoma, Tochiozan, Daieisho, Aoiyama, Okinoumi).
I learned my lesson from Natsu banzuke prediction and stuck entirely to the order dictated by my computed ranks. So the only decision was how to break ties. In general, I gave the nod to the rikishi ranked higher at Natsu. But in a few cases, I bumped up wrestlers with kachi-koshi above those with make-koshi: Tokushoryu and Chiyotairyu above Okinoumi and Shohozan, Daishomaru above Chiyonokuni and Arawashi, and Chiyomaru and Nishikigi above Kotoyuki.
Finally, Kaisei/Gagamaru seems like a complete toss-up. Kaisei went 7-8 in Makuuchi. His 7 wins include 2 over Juryo opponents and a fusen “win” over Kotoyuki. Gagamaru went 9-6 in Juryo, including 1-1 against Makuuchi opponents. Their recent performances don’t give any reason to expect anything more than a mediocre performance by either at the bottom of Makuuchi, with a good chance of demotion to Juryo after Nagoya. But someone has to fill M16e…
Well there are only 2 weeks to go before the real thing is published, so I’ll get my ten pence in here. I’ve tweaked my system and am hoping to get a good few hits this time.
Y: Hakuho, Harumafuji, Kisenosato, Kakuryu
O: Terunofuji, Goeido, Takayasu
S: Tamawashi, Mitakeumi
K: Yoshikaze, Kotoshogiku
M1: Shodai, Takakeisho
M2: Hokutofuji, Tochinoshin
M3: Endo, Ikioi
M4: Ura, Chiyoshoma
M5: Tochiozan, Kagayaki
M6: Daieisho, Ichinojo
M7: Okinoumi, Aoiyama
M8: Takanoiwa, Chiyonokuni
M9: Shohozan, Onosho
M10: Ishiura, Takarafuji
M11: Takekaze, Tokushoryu
M12: Arawashi, Sokokurai
M13: Sadanoumi, Chiyotairyu
M14: Daishomaru, Chiyomaru
M15: Nishikigi, Kotoyuki
M16: Kaisei
Lots of similarities, especially at the top and the bottom, and some interesting differences in the middle. I’m predicting much bigger drops for Okinoumi and Chiyonokuni, and a bigger rise for Onosho and Chiyotairyu. Daishomaru at M14 must be a glitch, as he went 8-7 at M13 so should rise, not drop.
Is that Sadanoumi East and Chiyotairyu West at M13?