In my previous guest post, I made predictions for the Natsu banzuke right after the conclusion of the Haru basho. With the release of the official Natsu banzuke only 10 days away, I thought I’d update my predictions, based partly on the feedback I received from Tachiai readers. In addition to pointing out the inherent unpredictability of the banzuke due to subjective NSK committee decisions, commenters noted that the committee tends to favor higher-ranked rikishi over lower-ranked ones to a greater extent than my predictions did. With that in mind, here is a second attempt at the Natsu banzuke.
|M1||Chiyonokuni (3)||Endo (4)|
|M2||Okinoumi (3)||Chiyoshoma (4)|
|M3||Daieisho (4)||Takanoiwa (5)|
|M4||Takarafuji (4)||Aoiyama (5)|
|M5||Takekaze (6)||Ikioi (6)|
|M6||Tochiozan (5)||Hokutofuji (6)|
|M7||Shodai (7)||Takakeisho (6)|
|M8||Shohozan (8)||Sokokurai (9)|
|M9||Ichinojo (10)||Ura (11)|
|M10||Kagayaki (10)||Arawashi (13)|
|M11||Tochinoshin (11)||Kotoyuki (14)|
|M12||Ishiura (12)||Tokushoryu (14)|
|M13||Toyohibiki (14)||Onosho (15)|
|M14||Daishomaru (14)||Chiyotairyu (16)|
|M15||Kaisei (17)||Oyanagi (17)|
I rank-ordered the rikishi by a score based on their rank in the previous basho and their win-loss record. This score, given in parentheses, roughly corresponds to the rank the wrestler “deserves,” (i.e. 3 = M3), though of course the actual rank is affected by the ranks of others and the need to fill all the slots. So for instance, this time around, even though nobody below Mitakeumi had a score above 3, the KW, M1 and M2 slots still needed to be filled.
I then generally simply filled in the ranks from K1W to M16E in this order, with ties broken in favor of higher rank at Haru. The main consistent departure from this order is that those with make-koshi must drop a rank; this affected Takarafuji, Kagayaki, Tochinoshin, Ishiura, and Daishomaru, who otherwise might have been placed a rank or two higher. Takanoiwa, Ura, Arawashi, Kotoyuki, and Onosho benefited by being ranked a bit higher as a result of this rule.
I’ve indicated other deviations from this rank order by italics. I gave the nod to Endo over Okinoumi for M1W given Endo’s popularity and higher rank. I placed Tochiozan at M6 instead of M5 so that Takekaze and Ikioi, who had identical Haru performances at the same rank, would remain at the same rank. And I brought Osunaarashi back to makuuchi in favor of Myogiryu, who drops to Juryo, along with Sadanoumi, Kyokushuho, Nishikigi, and Chiyoo.
Differences in rank from my previous prediction are in color, red for higher and blue for lower; bold indicates differences of more than one step in rank. These predictions are more sensitive to assumptions about how rikishi with identical or very similar scores are ranked relative to each other, and therefore have lower confidence.
Have at it with your own predictions! I might try to compile how we did after the banzuke is released.