Tachiai Formula Driven Ranking Comes Close
As expected, the banzuke for the Osaka tournament in March was published by the Japan Sumo Association this afternoon US time. Find it here. Much to our surprise, the formula defined after careful sifting of many past tournaments turned out to be fairly close in many cases. The most glaring miss was the demotion of Tochinoshin down to Maegashira 10, as opposed to rank velocity putting him only at Maegarshia 3. For future banzuke predictions, we will be adjusting the demotion scoring to try to get closer.
The other interesting wrinkle was that the new Maegarshia promoted from Juryo were inserted higher in the banzuke than expected. Some highlights
Three Sekiwake – As predicted, there are three wrestlers ranked at Sekiwake for March. This is the normal two with the addition of demoted Kotoshogiku, who is at this rank while he attempts a 10 win comeback to re-secure Ozeki.
Komosubi Power Couple – Mitakeumi and Shodai at Komusubi means there are no slackers in the San’yaku this tournament. This is going to be quite thrilling, I think. It also means that the Ozeki and Yokozuna are going to be vigorously challenged.
Takekaze top Maegashira – the veteran was strong in the January opener, and how he has a chance to really deliver the goods.
Takanoiwa was promoted to Maegarshira 2, vs the Maegarshira 4 predicted by the formula. As stated in the earlier posts, there is some hand modification done (it would seem) to get the banzuke “right”.
Hokutofuji was also 2 ranks higher, Maegashira 5 vs the predicted Maegashira 7. He had a strong run in January, and perhaps the NSK thinks it’s time for him to be tested above the middle of the pack.
Ura debuts in Makuuchi at Maegashira 12, I am hoping he makes the NHK World highlight show every day.
More in depth analysis coming from Tachiai now that we begin the march toward Haru. It’s time for sumo!
Somehow I thought this was Ura’s return to makuuchi but you’re right, it’s his debut. Sometimes my mind is still back on Planet Andy.
Meanwhile, on Earth, Ishiura debuted with Hokutofuji while Ura stumbled further into Juryo after a 6-9 record at Aki. This time Ishiura is coming off the 6-9 record.
Tochinoshin has abysmal banzuke mojo. He gets pretty consistently shafted in the final accounting of things, so maybe don’t adjust your overall formulas so drastically.
Yohann from Dosukoi.fr was surprised when Tochinoshin was shafted for a sanyaku spot last year. I think he had 10 wins from M1W and was moved to M1E and not into sanyaku. I’ll try to dig that banzuke up.
A blind spot on the formula was in fact demotion based on kyujo, so fix that and things get better. There is a negative rank velocity waiting that needs more math behind it. If I did have Tochinoshin lower, a number of other ranks would have been more accurate.
I’m feeling pretty good about my predictions. I had Takekaze M1, Takanoiwa M2, Hokutofuji M5, Tochinoshin M10, Daieisho M11, Ura M12. The only misses by my simple formula were switching Ikioi and Sokokurai, Takarafuji and Yoshikaze (but they had equal scores), and Okinoumi and Kotoyuki. All of these were one rank apart. At the bottom of the banzuke, I had Chiyoo and Nishigiki one spot too high, and thought Chiyotairyu and Chiyootori would hang on to the last too spots, rather than being demoted in favor of Kyokushuho and Tokushoryu.
You pretty well crushed it.
Masterfully done!
Thanks guys! Let’s see if my luck holds in the future.
My worst banzuke EVER. Fortunately yokozuna and ozeki were easy to guess… I’m filled with shame!
It’s a black art, to be certain. Your penance will be to watch 20 minutes of Harumafuji trying to sing.