According to Nikkan Sports, Terunofuji has expressed a desire for a rapid rise to Ozeki. Full of confidence from his 13-win Spring tournament, including a win over superzuna Hakuho, Terunofuji said that “When I go up [to Ozeki], I want to do it quickly. A slow rise doesn’t make sense.” The general guidelines for ozeki promotion are 33 wins over 3 tournaments. They’re also talking about a potentially faster rise if he’s able to win the next tournament or get at least 14 wins.
It should be noted that these guidelines are flexible as we saw with Goeido’s promotion last year. Goeido had 32 wins in the three tournaments prior to his ozeki promotion. The fact that he had two jun-yusho gave the Sumo Kyokai the impression that he could be promoted despite being one win shy of the 33 win mark. However, Goeido’s performance at the ozeki rank has been less than stellar. He’s already faced demotion and is so far yet to break 8 wins in four tries with a record of 29 wins and 31 losses. The period spanning Day 8-Day 12 has been particularly rough. Of the 20 bouts during those days, during these four tournaments, Goeido’s only managed 3 wins.
I note Goeido’s challenges because he faced a fairly long spell at sekiwake, 14 tournaments or more than 2 years at the rank. It’s now possible that Terunofuji can be promoted after just 2 tournaments at that rank and I doubt the Sumo Kyokai is eager to have more lackluster performances out of another ozeki. However, in this case I do not think that Terunofuji will be a bust at ozeki but a two tournament promotion is jumping the gun. I think he’ll need at least two more tournaments at sekiwake.
Yes, he was dominant this tournament but the question is whether he can keep it up, particularly facing two yokozuna instead of one. He never had more than 8 wins in the top maegashira ranks, he doesn’t fight stablemate Harumafuji, and next tournament he will face both Hakuho and Kakuryu. The two-tournament promotion will be very tough but the three-tournament promotion is definitely within reach. He definitely needs to find an answer for Kaisei, that’s for sure. He’s lost to the Brazilian in two straight basho. Anyway, we shall see.
I like Terunofuji and I certainly think he’s Ozeki material, but promotion with such a recent 8-7 from M1 wouldn’t be wise. I was aghast that Goeido got promoted with an 8-7 in his Oz run, and I think I was right to be now he’s struggling. Terunofuji needs to demonstrate consistence in the Sanyaku before promotion so that we don’t end up with another disappointing Ozeki – and I’m sure he’s more than capable of doing so. Of course, if he does something spectacular like take the next yusho then I would agree with a faster route to the next rank.